06:20 AM EST, 11/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The slew of post-meeting European Central Bank speakers has added little to the policy narrative, said ING.

The Governing Council is broadly on the same page with the rates view, and the feeling is that some substantial data surprises are now needed to create a new division among policymakers, wrote the bank in a note.

If anything, ING thinks the ECB might cut once again, but the risks at the moment aren't high, and the bank predicts that the easing cycle is over.

Despite the hawkish repricing in the US dollar (USD) curve, the EUR/USD drop looks a bit overdone. ING's short-term fair value model is now showing a 1% undervaluation, and with positioning now much more balanced, the pair can enjoy faster rallies on poor United States jobs market news.

The bank remains "optimistic" on a rally into year-end to 1.18-1.20, but until U.S. data gives the go-ahead for a rebound, there aren't other obvious bullish drivers for EUR/USD.

Inflation in Turkey surprised the market lower (2.6%/32.9%), in line with ING's estimate, and inflation returned to a declining trajectory. The bank anticipates that the annual inflation rate could be around 32% by the end of 2025.

For next year, ING now expects inflation to decelerate to around 22% versus the Turkish central bank's (CBT) interim target at 16%, with the balance of risks tilted to the upside. Meanwhile, the October data supports another rate cut in December, the size of which will also be determined by November inflation.

With another expected 100bps cut in December, the bank estimates the policy rate to be at 38.5% at the end of this year, which shouldn't threaten the lira's (TRY) stable depreciating path and CBT foreign currency policy.

Tuesday's calendar in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) is quiet ahead of a busier second half of the week, with inflation print in the Czech Republic on Wednesday and meetings of the central banks of Poland (NBP) and the Czech Republic (CNB) on Wednesday and Thursday.

However, CEE currencies saw a positive start to the week with gains for the Czech koruna (CZK) and forint (HUF). EUR/CZK remains in a tight range of 24.250-400, and for now it doesn't look like anything is going to change despite the CNB meeting this week, added ING.

On the other hand, EUR/HUF tested new lows on Monday and briefly touched 387, where it can be seen that, despite some weaker data and fiscal headlines, markets are OK with current levels.

At the same time, ING believes that markets are getting closer to pricing in more Hungarian central bank (MNB) rate cuts at the front end of the curve, given the strength of HUF and anti-inflationary pressures.