06:09 AM EDT, 05/12/2025 (MT Newswires) -- This will be a busy week in the United Kingdom data calendar, noted ING.

On Tuesday, investors will get the latest jobs figures. The job market is cooling but not significantly weakening after recent tax hikes. Last month's payroll drop might be revised up, and while unemployment is expected to rise, the figures have known reliability issues. Crucially, wage growth should slow, easing pay pressures, wrote the bank in a note.

On Thursday, the Q1 gross domestic product report will be released. February's GDP surged by 0.5% and despite a potential pullback in March, Q1 should show "solid" growth, said ING. Q2 GDP will likely be more subdued, but overall growth should be supported by government spending, stated the bank.

Sterling has received support from an improved trade picture for the U.K. -- in other words, deals with the United States and India and upcoming negotiations with the European Union -- as well as from a hawkish-leaning Bank of England, pointed out ING. Positioning imbalances, improved risk sentiment, and the upcoming EU-U.K. summit next Monday may well keep EUR/GBP pressure, with a break below 0.840 now appearing increasingly likely, added the bank.

Last week changed some of ING's views that had worked for some time. Poland's central bank (NBP) was more hawkish, while the Czech peer (CNB) was more dovish relative to ING's expectations. PLN/CZK hit its bottom, and the bank saw some bounce on Friday. While EUR/CZK looks fair to ING at current levels -- and there is probably still some downside -- the EUR/PLN move is too much. The bank believes the hawkish rates repricing points more to levels around 4.260.

EUR/RON closed unchanged for the second day in a row, and the market saw some relief in forwards and bonds on Friday. Still, ING doesn't believe this is the end of the story, with several events still on the table, including the second round of the presidential election next weekend.