08:07 AM EDT, 10/11/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for September on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, and the consensus is centered around a "solid" 27,000 employment print, with unemployment inching up from 6.6% to 6.7%, said ING.
If the numbers prove to be close to consensus, ING doubts the Bank of Canada will be rushed into a 50bps cut later this month.
Financial markets are pricing in 48bps for the Oct. 23 policy meeting and 70bps in total by year-end, which looks a bit overblown on the dovish side, wrote the bank in a note.
Accordingly, ING sees some room for hawkish repricing to offer help to the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie), which has remained under pressure against US dollar despite higher oil prices.
The bank had previously identified room for CAD's outperformance against other commodity currencies and could see another leg lower in AUD/CAD and NZD/CAD on Friday before the expected Chinese stimulus story over the weekend gives some help to the antipodeans.