07:19 AM EST, 01/05/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Having very briefly traded above 1.1800 in late December, EUR/USD is back under pressure again, said ING.

Depending on events in Venezuela over the next few days, EUR/USD could come lower still, wrote the bank in a note. Below 1.1680, ING is looking at 1.1640 and possibly 1.1600 too.

There is also the release of the United States ISM manufacturing data to consider on Monday, which may have an impact, pointed out the bank.

Perhaps the hottest topic for European asset markets this week is the Dutch pension reform and whether local pension funds will start paying longer-dated euro (EUR) swap rates as they shift from a defined benefit to a defined contribution system, stated ING.

The 10-30 year EUR swap curve steepened a lot in the second half of last year in anticipation of these moves, added the bank. The question is whether this activity is enough to move the shorter-dated swap rates higher as well -- perhaps providing the euro with some support.

ING suspected that Q1 might be a "consolidative" one for EUR/USD. The best chance of it moving higher may come from Q2 onwards as German fiscal stimulus starts to take effect.