BERLIN, Feb 13 (Reuters) - The German army's

battle-readiness is less than when Russia invaded Ukraine in

2022, military officials, lawmakers and defence experts told

Reuters.

Even if a new government boosts defence spending, it will

remain hamstrung for years, particularly by a lack of air

defence, artillery and soldiers, they said.

"Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we had eight brigades

at around 65% readiness," Colonel Andre Wuestner, head of the

German Armed Forces Association, told Reuters in an interview.

Sending weapons, ammunition and equipment to Ukraine, as well as

accelerating Germany's own drills, took a toll on the available

equipment, he said.

"Together, this means the German land forces are down to a

readiness of around 50%," he said.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz promised after Russia's invasion to

overhaul Germany's decrepit military, but three years later a

pledge to provide the NATO alliance with two divisions -

typically around 40,000 troops - by 2025 and 2027 faces major

setbacks, more than a dozen military officials, lawmakers and

defence experts said.

The details revealed by the sources, some of whom spoke on

condition of anonymity as they discussed classified military

information, underscore Berlin's precarious position as Europe

faces a new geopolitical era under U.S. President Donald Trump.

Germany, alongside Poland, is tasked by NATO with providing

the bulk of ground forces that would act as first responders to

any Russian attack on the alliance's eastern flank.

Scholz's historic pledge to bring about a Zeitenwende, or

turning point, in Germany's approach to its military has not

worked, the sources said, blaming a lack of a sense of urgency,

a dysfunctional procurement system and strained finances.

Berlin has failed to fully equip troops for a division for

NATO by the start of this year, and in any case has no air

defences to support them, the sources said.

Its pledge for a NATO division by 2027 is "long out of our

reach," said a military source.

That second division is only about 20% equipped, according

to opposition lawmaker Ingo Gaedechens, a defence expert on

parliament's budget committee.

"Even if we were to order everything now, we would not get

it equipped in time," said Gaedechens. Polls suggest his

Christian Democrats (CDU) party, headed by candidate chancellor

Friedrich Merz, will lead a new government after Germany's

February 23 election.

TRUMP'S DEMANDS

The extent of Germany's weakness comes to light as President

Trump is pushing Europe to shoulder more of its own defence

burden and Washington talks of a deal to end the war in Ukraine,

which would put even more demands on Germany's military if they

have to police a truce.

Trump said on Wednesday that he had spoken with Russian

President Vladimir Putin about starting negotiations immediately

to end the war in Ukraine.

All Germany's mainstream parties have pledged to keep

military spending at NATO's required minimum of 2% of GDP

. Trump wants NATO members to more than double their

spending targets to 5% of GDP from 2%, and NATO is considering

raising its military spending target to around 3%.

Germany's current Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said last

month military expenditures of around 3% of GDP will be

necessary to make the Bundeswehr ready for war, but has said

Trump's 5% target would amount to more than 40% of Germany's

total government spending.

Whoever wins the election will in any case face severe

challenges after 2027 when the 100 billion euro ($104 billion)

special fund will be exhausted. Germany will need around 30

billion euros per year from then on to reach the 2% target.

"Now there are only problems everywhere and no solutions,"

Gaedechens said.

The most glaring example is air defence, which "needs to be

solved most urgently," Johann Wadephul, deputy leader of the

CDU/CSU conservative faction in parliament responsible for

defence topics, told Reuters.

Defence experts say the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the

importance of drones and artillery - large guns operated by

crews. The Bundeswehr is lagging on both.

On drones, "the Bundeswehr has nothing at all," said

Wadephul. "So we are practically empty-handed."

He called for easier procurement standards and a rise in

defence spending to 3% of GDP. He and the CDU also want Germany

to reintroduce conscription, which the country suspended in

2011.

A spokesperson for Scholz did not respond directly to a

request for comment on the assertion the Zeitenwende had failed,

but pointed to remarks Scholz made in February. Then he said a

national debate on how to fund more defence spending was

"somewhat irritating," and called for a deal to ease Germany's

tight restrictions on debt to cover the cost.

Germany was already facing a shortfall in funding its

needs, he said then, adding that it was "almost spooky that

there is no discussion about how we will pay for it."

The defence ministry declined to comment on the state of

the army's readiness, saying it was classified information. But

a spokesperson added that Germany's land forces have been

"providing a combat-ready division in high availability" to

fulfil NATO missions at short notice on its eastern flank since

January 1, 2025.

A NATO spokesperson said Scholz's Zeitenwende had made a big

difference to Germany's security and the strength of the

alliance. Increasing defence spending was one of its top

priorities although there is more to do, they added.

"THE SNOOZE BUTTON"

Russian President Vladimir Putin is ramping up his forces to

1.5 million troops as he aims to be capable of fighting in two

different theatres.

Wuestner, the colonel, said Germany is far from the only

European state to be slow to respond to Russia's military

incursions into Ukraine since 2014, but "in particular we

Germans hit the snooze button."

Defence ranks third after immigration and the state of the

economy in what Germans see as the most pressing problems for

the new government, according to a survey by public broadcaster

ARD published in January.

In 2021, Germany agreed to provide 10 brigades - units

of some 5,000 troops - for NATO - by 2030. It now has eight and

is building up a ninth in Lithuania to be ready from 2027.

In summer, NATO is set to agree more demanding targets to

adapt to the deteriorating security situation; Germany is

expected to the be asked to provide at least two more brigades,

two experts told Reuters.

The German NATO division that was meant to be ready this

year is not fully operational as - after donations to Ukraine -

it lacks 155mm howitzers, its main weapons system, and had to

cannibalize some artillery pieces for spare parts, a military

and a parliamentary source told Reuters.

Around 80 advanced RCH 155 howitzers needed for the 2027

second division have not yet been ordered.

Both the divisions also need around 200 short-range air

defences, such as Gepard anti-aircraft tanks, to protect them

from drones and aircraft, according to two military sources and

a parliamentary one.

To save money, Germany decommissioned the Gepard in 2012 and

is only slowly starting to replace it, with deliveries of an

initial order of 19 Rheinmetall Skyrangers expected in 2027 and

2028.

"We won't have the air defences for the division 2025 up and

running before 2029," the military source warned.

"BLED OUT WITHIN MONTHS"

During the Cold War, Germany spent between 3% and 4.5% of

GDP on defence and maintained 500,000 troops and 800,000 reserve

forces. But the Bundeswehr has not met a target of 203,000

troops set in 2018, and it is currently short-staffed by some

20,000 regular troops, according to defence ministry data.

Since conscription was suspended in 2011, it also needs more

reservists. Scholz's government introduced a law in November

obliging young men to fill in a questionnaire on their readiness

to fight, and Berlin's goal is to eventually reach 200,000 more

reservists.

This would enable Germany to swiftly expand its troops to

around 460,000 in the event of war - nearly double what it could

muster today.

"Given the casualty rates we are calculating with, the

Bundeswehr will be bled out within months," said CDU lawmaker

Roderich Kiesewetter, who was a colonel in the German forces

before turning to politics. He declined to disclose what those

rates are.

His CDU colleague Wadephul said Germany needs a combat-ready

military with some 250,000 troops and 500,000 reserve forces.

According to the latest polls, a coalition of the CDU and

the SPD is the most likely election outcome.

Smaller, radical parties AfD and BSW could potentially form

a blocking minority of one third of the seats in parliament, and

prevent agreement on new special funds to bankroll higher

investment into the Bundeswehr.

And the military's readiness would be tested if Trump

strikes a deal on Ukraine that includes Europe providing troops

to secure a ceasefire.

"If you take a look at the length of the frontline, how many

brigades will we have to provide?" asked Joe Weingarten, a

lawmaker with the SPD who specializes in defence topics.

"This would come on top of everything."

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