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Chinese drone uses false signals to mimic other aircraft

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Flights test decoy strategies for potential Taiwan

invasion,

analyst says

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Operations could confuse rivals in conflict

By Greg Torode

HONG KONG, Feb 26 (Reuters) - A large Chinese military

drone has conducted regular flights over the South China Sea in

recent months while transmitting false transponder signals that

made it appear to be other aircraft, including a sanctioned

Belarusian cargo plane and a British Typhoon fighter jet.

Military attaches and security analysts scrutinising the

operations say the flights represent a step-change in China's

grey-zone tactics in the contested South China Sea and appear to

be testing possible decoy capabilities in the event of a Chinese

invasion of Taiwan.

Since August, at least 23 flights have been logged under the

call sign YILO4200, a known long-endurance Chinese military

drone, but the aircraft transmitted registration numbers of

other aircraft, according to Reuters analysis of data from

flight-tracking website Flightradar24.

The flight paths often head east from the Chinese province

of Hainan towards the Philippines, near the disputed Paracel

Islands, and down Vietnam's coast, the flight analysis showed.

Reuters is reporting the scale and complexity of the

operations for the first time.

The operations represent a new and elaborate element in

China's expanding presence across the South China Sea and around

Taiwan as its military responds to Communist Party demands to

sharpen the readiness of its forces, according to three regional

diplomats, four open-source intelligence analysts and three

security scholars familiar with the flight data. The activities

include exploiting electronic warfare and deception tactics in

real time, they said.

And while the masking is unlikely to fully deceive air

traffic controllers or military-grade radars, it could sow

time-wasting confusion in a conflict, conceal sensitive

surveillance activity or be used for propaganda or

misinformation, the envoys and intelligence analysts said.

"We've not seen anything like this before," said Ben Lewis,

founder of the open-source data platform PLATracker.

"It's ... a kind of deception trial being carried out in

real time using aircraft that are not exactly low profile. It

does not appear to be at all accidental."

China's defence ministry didn't respond to Reuters questions

about the flights and their purpose.

BELARUSIAN CARGO PLANE

The flights have mostly appeared on Flightradar24 as an

Ilyushin-62 cargo plane operated by Rada Airlines of Belarus but

also a Royal Air Force Typhoon, a North Korean Il-62 passenger

jet and an anonymous Gulfstream executive jet.

Since mid-December, YILO4200 has also made several flights

in northwest China, most recently on February 15 when it

appeared as an anonymous Pilatus PC-12, a small turboprop

passenger aircraft.

Aircraft registration numbers stem from a coded so-called 24-bit

address governed by the International Civil Aviation Authority.

Broadcast via transponders, the numbers help reveal an

aircraft's position, direction and speed.

While unique to each aircraft, the addresses are publicly

known and two pilots and two analysts say recoding a transponder

to give it a different registration number is possible.

Rada was sanctioned by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets

Control in August 2024 for flying cargoes in and out of Africa

that included Wagner Group personnel linked to the Russian

military, as well as exotic wildlife trafficking.

The real Belarusian Il-62 has been active throughout the

period with a different call sign and was once airborne at the

same time as the Chinese drone attempting to mask it, the

Flightradar24 data showed.

Rada Airlines did not respond to a request for comment and

Britain's defence ministry said it could not comment.

An ICAO spokesperson said the body does not comment on

issues or speculation concerning specific member states.

OPERATION COULD SOW CONFUSION

Flying out of Hainan's Qionghai Boao International Airport,

the aircraft frequently remained airborne for hours, flying

star- or hourglass-shaped patterns over the same areas.

The flight profiles matched those typically associated with

large military drones on surveillance operations and covered

sensitive parts of the South China Sea, including areas

frequented by submarines, four intelligence analysts familiar

with the data said.

The Chinese military generally flies its drones "dark",

transmitting neither call signs nor registration numbers.

Two flights among the 23 reviewed by Reuters appeared to be

particularly unusual: In one, that straddled August 5 and 6, the

drone initially transmitted a code belonging to the RAF Typhoon,

then switched signal to three other planes over about 20

minutes, eventually landing as the Rada Airlines plane.

In another, on November 18, the drone was airborne

purporting to be the Belarusian plane when the actual Rada Il-62

plane took off near Belarus headed for Tehran.

Singapore-based security analyst Alexander Neill said the

Hainan operations appeared to be a fresh tactic in a suite of

Chinese digital options to "muddy the waters" should regional

tensions escalate into conflict.

"They don't appear to be exercises as much as the kind of

action the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has described as rehearsals

for a confrontation - anything the Chinese can do to sow

confusion in the minds of their rivals is to their advantage,"

said Neill, a fellow at Hawaii's Pacific Forum.

"The U.S. and its allies know that given the realities of

highly automated conventional conflict, even milliseconds count

along the kill chain of escalation."

The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment on the

Chinese drone flights.

Lewis and three other open-source intelligence analysts said

the YILO4200 call sign came from long-endurance Wing Loong 2

unmanned aerial vehicle, an aircraft similar to the U.S. Reaper

drone, with a wingspan of 20.5 metres (67 feet).

The Wing Loong is used mainly for surveillance but can be

fitted for other tasks, including command and control

operations, precision missile strikes and anti-submarine

operations.

It is produced by the state-linked Chengdu Aircraft

Corporation, a subsidiary of AVIC. The company said it would not

be commenting on the issue.

Online flight tracker Amelia Smith first connected the Wing

Loong 2 to the call sign by analysing flight data, state press

reports and government announcements.

Lewis, Smith and two other intelligence analysts said it was

unclear which Chinese agency was operating the aircraft out of

Boao Airport, which is a dual-use commercial and military

facility.

Satellite images from July, September and January obtained

by Reuters show large drones on the tarmac, alongside support

buildings in a part of the airport now being expanded.

REHEARSAL FOR TAIWAN

Flightradar24 communications director Ian Petchenik said the

tracker had noticed the Hainan flights and had not seen such

activity before, beyond apparently accidental miscodings,

non-existent addresses or corrupted data.

"Based on the flight patterns and the kind of usage of these

24-bit addresses, it doesn't seem like it is a mistake in the

programming of the transponders," Petchenik said.

Reuters couldn't determine whether the flights are running

on programmed paths or being controlled from the ground.

The paths run through areas of heavy naval activity, including

the waters south of Hainan near Chinese submarine bases and east

toward the Bashi Channel between Taiwan and the Philippines - a

key choke point for China's navy to access the Pacific.

The route patterns suggest a rehearsal for an operation over

Taiwan, said Neill, the security analyst.

Overlaid on a map of Taiwan, the 23 flight paths pass

multiple military points of interest, concentrated around Taipei

but also extending along the island's southern coastline. The

eastern trajectories bring the aircraft close to Japanese and

U.S. bases in Okinawa and other islands in the Ryukyu chain.

"It is a compelling image - extensive rehearsals across the

South China Sea to be deployed over Taiwan's key points," Neill

said.