VIENNA, July 4 (Reuters) - For more than four months,
U.S. envoys delivered increasingly shrill warnings to Austria's
Raiffeisen Bank International to scrap a deal they
said had links to one of Russia's most powerful oligarchs. In
May, Washington's patience snapped.
In a written ultimatum that landed on May 8 at the bank, its
supervisor the European Central Bank and Austria's government,
Washington threatened to curb Raiffeisen's access to the dollar,
according to one person who has seen the letter, a potential
death sentence for the biggest Western lender in Russia.
Within hours, Raiffeisen had called off the deal first
announced in December, but the damage was done: by pushing
Washington to the brink, the seeds of mistrust had been sown,
said one person with knowledge of U.S. thinking.
Now, nearly two months on, pressure on the bank to loosen
its ties with Russia is mounting, from both Washington and the
ECB, three people with knowledge of the process said.
Raiffeisen, and Austria, are on the front line of a global
push by the United States to isolate Russia by reinforcing
sanctions on banking and choking off access to Western goods
more than two years after it invaded Ukraine.
Reuters has spoken to more than a dozen people, including
senior officials involved in discussions with the United States,
Austria and European regulators, as well as sources with direct
knowledge of the bank's strategy.
The interviews show it remains under immediate international
pressure to retreat from Russia - despite ending its deal to buy
a stake in Austrian construction firm Strabag, which
the U.S. Treasury said in May belonged to sanctioned Russian
businessman Oleg Deripaska.
Deripaska has told Reuters the U.S. response to the deal was
"balderdash" and a spokesperson for the businessman reiterated
that "Deripaska had zero interest in Strabag at this moment".
The interviews also show that Raiffeisen failed to take heed
of warnings well over a year ago from European regulators that
it was a playing a high-risk game with Washington over its
business in Russia.
Washington's threat to penalise Raiffeisen has not been
withdrawn and it continues to closely monitor the bank, its
relations with Russia and any potential sanctions violations,
two of the people with knowledge of the process said.
If Raiffeisen was prepared to do a deal that Washington has
linked to Deripaska, who is accused by the United States of
being part of a Kremlin-backed campaign to meddle in its 2016
presidential election, it could take other risks, said the
person familiar with U.S. thinking.
A Raiffeisen spokesperson said exchanges with the U.S.
Treasury regarding Russia were "generally friendly" and that it
was continuously reducing its exposure in the country.
The U.S. Treasury declined to comment for this story.
Washington has the power to fine banks in breach of
sanctions, or cut them off from the dollar. It hit French bank
BNP Paribas, for instance, with a $9 billion penalty
in 2014 for violating U.S. sanctions on Sudan, Iran and Cuba.
"Raiffeisen, and Austria, are playing with fire," said Nina
Tomaselli, an Austrian lawmaker from the Greens, which are part
of the country's ruling coalition. "Whether we like it or not,
America has got the whip hand."
'FLYING BLIND'
While many Western governments have shunned Russia, some
Austrian politicians have been reluctant to sever ties with a
country still thanked for allowing Austria's rehabilitation in
1955 following World War Two. In return, Austria commited to
remain neutral.
Austria still relies heavily on Russian gas, while Vienna
has acted as a hub for cash from Russia and its ex-Soviet
neighbours through a financial network built after the fall of
communism.
But Raiffeisen's European supervisors want immediate action.
ECB officials attended a meeting of the bank's supervisory board
in June to urge the lender to act quickly and the regulator has
demanded it outline in the coming weeks what steps it will take,
one of the people with knowledge of the process said.
A senior international regulator said the aborted Strabag
deal had exacerbated relations with the bank's ECB supervisors
and that they viewed Raiffeisen as dishonest. The regulators
also worry they are "flying blind", knowing too little about
Raiffeisen's Russian operations, a second person said.
Raiffeisen said the bank had cut the volume of loans and
payments in Russia and was taking steps to reduce deposits, of
which it has 14 billion euros ($15 billion) there.
The ECB declined to comment for this story.
With sprawling industrial holdings, more than 18 million
customers from Vienna to Moscow and 44,000 staff, Raiffeisen is
a financial linchpin for Austria and much of eastern Europe.
Russia has become an even bigger money spinner for the bank
since the Ukraine war started in 2022 - making up about half of
the group's profits in the first three months of this year - as
fees on payments abroad spiked.
Nevertheless, the U.S. Treasury's threat to pull the rug out
from under Raiffeisen continues to resonate deeply with its
management, a person with knowledge of the bank's thinking said,
adding that such a step would be "fatal", in part because big
corporates who use it for international payments would leave.
The U.S. authorities are aware of the seismic fallout such a
move would have on Raiffeisen, as well as the potential it could
spill over into the wider financial system, and are treading
carefully, one of the people with knowledge of U.S. thinking
said.
PREPARING FOR THE WORST
That's why Washington would prefer European regulators to
force the bank to loosen its ties with Russia, the two people
with direct knowledge of the process said.
But Europe's efforts to rein in Raiffeisen as part of
measures to choke Russia's economy following Moscow's invasion
Ukraine have been chequered.
In the first few months of 2023, the ECB and European
regulators at the Single Resolution Board, an authority that
winds down banks in trouble, discussed various scenarios should
Raiffeisen run into difficulties, two people with knowledge of
those talks said.
The talks, which have not been previously reported, prompted
a conversation between the officials and Raiffeisen about
preparing a plan to deal with an existential crisis that could
be triggered by a U.S. penalty.
The U.S. Treasury's sanctions enforcer, the Office of
Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), had opened an investigation into
Raiffeisen's Russian activities in early 2023.
One of those sources said regulators examined a potential
break-up of the bank but in talks with Raiffeisen, it was
reluctant to prepare a plan for a contained winding up in an
emergency - and won the support of Austrian officials who feared
any such discussion could trigger panic were it to leak.
The discussions were abandoned in March 2023, when two U.S.
banks and Credit Suisse collapsed, distracting the attention of
regulators, the person said.
Raiffeisen said it terminated the Strabag deal when the
regulatory conditions were not met, that no money changed hands
and it does not consider its access to the U.S. financial system
at risk.
The Single Resolution Board and Austria's finance ministry
declined to comment on the 2023 discussions.
'LOOKING FOR LOOPHOLES'
While European Union countries forge joint sanctions on
Russia together, it is left to countries to enforce them. In
Austria, various ministries and authorities are responsible for
monitoring and enforcing sanctions.
Austrian officials in various arms of government advised
Raiffeisen privately against the Strabag deal but it pressed on
anyway, three people familiar with the matter said.
Speaking up to Raiffeisen, which is part of a powerful group
rooted in Alpine farming and has wide political clout, is
difficult in Austria, said one public official.
Austria's central bank, which has the power to freeze
assets, said it was up to banks themselves to ensure deals did
not break sanctions.
"We have a lot of legislation but enforcement is
extremely weak. If countries have an economic interest, that
often prevails," said Sophia in't Veld, a European Union
lawmaker who helped pass sanctions rules.
To be sure, Russia has made it clear it wants Western banks
such Raiffeisen to stay, which could make it hard for them to
get permission to leave - and get their money out.
Italian bank UniCredit, also present in Russia
albeit on a smaller scale than Raiffeisen, has challenged the
ECB legally over the central bank's push to get it to leave
Russia.
Raiffeisen has about 5 billion euros of capital trapped in
Russia, according to one of the sources, and the Strabag deal
was designed to free up $1.5 billion of that.
The bank has repeatedly said it intends to get out of
Russia, but can't say when that might happen.
"Instead of pulling back from Russia, Raiffeisen has spent
more than two years looking for loopholes and gaps to get its
money out," said Austrian lawmaker Tomaselli.
($1 = 0.9295 euros)