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INSIGHT-How US allies are preparing for a possible second Trump term
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INSIGHT-How US allies are preparing for a possible second Trump term
Apr 24, 2024 6:05 PM

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Leaders, former leaders and diplomats meet Trump

*

Saudi Arabia's crown prince called him, source says

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Worried about tariffs, Germany met Republican governors

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Mexican candidate to tailor envoy choice if Trump wins,

sources

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Rudd pushed Canberra to Trump-proof submarine deal

(Adds comment from South Korea's foreign ministry in paragraph

56)

By Alexander Ratz, Diego Oré and Gram Slattery

BERLIN/MEXICO CITY/WASHINGTON, April 24 (Reuters) -

G ermany is waging a charm offensive inside the Republican Party.

Japan is lining up its own Trump whisperer. Mexican government

officials are talking to Camp Trump. And Australia is busy

making laws to help Trump-proof its U.S. defense ties.

Everywhere, U.S. allies are taking steps to defend or

advance their interests in the event former President Donald

Trump returns to power in November elections, an even chance

based on recent opinion polls in swing states.

They want to avoid the cold slap that Trump's "America

First" policies dealt them last time around, which included

trade wars, a shakeup of security alliances, an immigration

crackdown and the withdrawal from a global climate accord.

Reuters spoke to diplomats and government officials in five

continents about preparations for Trump 2.0. It uncovered

Mexican deliberations over a new, Trump-savvy foreign minister,

an Australian envoy's role in rushing to protect a submarine

deal, and a German official's talks with Republican state

governors.

Some foreign leaders have contacted Trump directly despite

the risk of irking his election rival, Democratic President Joe

Biden. Saudi's crown prince recently phoned Trump, a source with

knowledge of the conversation said; while Hungary's prime

minister and Poland's president met him in person in recent

weeks.

British Foreign Minister David Cameron also held talks with

Trump this month at his Florida resort. He told reporters in

Washington afterwards that his meeting was a private dinner

where they discussed Ukraine, the Israel-Gaza war, and the

future of NATO.

The White House referred Reuters to comments by spokesperson

Karine Jean-Pierre in which she said meetings such as the one

held by Cameron were not uncommon. She declined to answer

questions about Trump's meeting with Orban or the Saudi call,

which was first reported by the New York Times.

The Saudi government's media office and the Trump campaign

did not respond to requests for comment about the call

The campaign said he discussed security issues with each of the

European leaders, including a proposal by Polish President

Andrzej Duda that NATO members spend at least 3% of gross

domestic product on defense. Currently, they aim to spend 2%.

Jeremi Suri, a presidential historian at the University of

Texas, said meetings between candidates and diplomats were

normal, but said he thought Trump's meeting with Orban and the

call with Saudi Arabia's Mohammed Bin Salman were unusual.

Trump adviser Brian Hughes said: "Meetings and calls from

world leaders reflect the recognition of what we already know

here at home. Joe Biden is weak, and when President Trump is

sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, the world

will be more secure and America will be more prosperous."

The campaign did not respond in detail to questions about

the other findings in this story, but campaign spokesperson

Karoline Leavitt said: "America's allies are anxiously hoping

that President Trump will be re-elected."

GERMANY'S "BYPASS DIPLOMACY"

Much of the Trump outreach has been less direct than

meetings with the candidate.

Germany has been building bridges with Trump's Republican

base at a state level, reminding party officials that it invests

heavily in U.S. industry.

Mindful that Trump threatened punitive tariffs on Germany's

car industry while president, and now wants to slap a minimum

10% tariff on all imports if returned to office, Germany is

using a transatlantic coordinator to ready for Trump 2.0.

As coordinator, Michael Link is leading what Berlin calls

"bypass diplomacy", crisscrossing the union, targeting swing

states where Germany is a heavy investor.

"It would be extremely important, if Donald Trump were

re-elected, to prevent the punitive tariffs he is planning on

goods from the EU," he told Reuters.

He said he had met Republican governors of Oklahoma,

Arkansas, Alabama and Indiana. At each stop, he explains why

good trade ties underpin Germany's U.S. presence. The biggest

exporter of U.S.-made cars is BMW, and Germany says it

employs 860,000 Americans directly and indirectly.

Link has also been meeting Democratic officials, but

lobbying those who can influence Trump is his priority.

Reuters could not determine if Trump was aware of Berlin's

approach.

TRUMP-FRIENDLY FACES

In Mexico, government officials have been meeting people

close to Trump on issues including migration and the trafficking

of fentanyl, a synthetic opioid, into the United States, both

issues where Mexico could face more U.S. pressure under another

Trump administration, according to two Mexico-based sources.

Trump has said he would order the Pentagon "to make

appropriate use of special forces" to attack cartel leadership

and infrastructure, which would be unlikely to get the blessing

of the Mexican government.

The Mexican officials also discussed the North American free

trade deal, last rewritten under the Trump presidency in 2020

and up for review in 2026, the sources added. Trump has praised

his rewrite of that deal in recent public remarks.

And in a sign of how much personal relationships matter

under Trump, Mexico's ruling party is considering alternative

candidates to appoint as the next foreign minister depending on

whether Trump or Biden looks most likely to win, said two

sources familiar with the deliberations.

Mexico holds its own presidential election in June. If

ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum wins, as currently

expected, she would take office in October, a month before the

U.S. election. If polls point to a Trump win, she is likely to

choose Marcelo Ebrard as her foreign minister, the sources said.

Ebrard served as Mexican foreign minister during Trump's

presidency and was generally regarded at home as having held his

own in dealings with the administration.

If Biden wins, she is more likely to choose political

veteran Juan Ramon de La Fuente, the sources said.

Sheinbaum's campaign said she was not yet ready to announce

her pick. A spokesperson for Ebrard said he was focused on a

Senate bid and supporting Sheinbaum's presidential run. De La

Fuente did not respond to a request for comment.

JAPAN'S TRUMP WHISPERER

To bolster its diplomatic engagement with the Trump camp,

Japan is preparing to deploy Sunao Takao, a Harvard-educated

interpreter who helped former prime minister Shinzo Abe bond

with Trump over games of golf.

Another ex-prime minister of Japan, Taro Aso, met Trump in

New York on Tuesday, according to a campaign official.

America's closest ally in Asia worries Trump may revive

trade protectionism and demand more money for the upkeep of U.S.

forces in Japan, government officials say.

Britain's Labour party, now in opposition but strong

favorite to win elections expected by year-end, may have a

steeper hill to climb to reach a good relationship with a Trump

administration.

Labour's nominative foreign minister, David Lammy, once

wrote in Time magazine that Trump was a "woman-hating, neo-Nazi

sociopath". Lammy is now working to build ties with Republicans,

said a Labour official.

Lammy has met Republican figures seen as candidates for

roles in a Trump cabinet, including Mike Pompeo, a former U.S.

Secretary of State under Trump, the Labour official said.

Lammy declined to be interviewed but has said many British

politicians criticized Trump and he would represent British

interests as foreign minister regardless of who occupies the

White House.

Victoria Coates, a former deputy national security adviser

under Trump, said a Labour victory could mean a rough patch for

U.S.-UK relations if Trump wins, citing "personal vitriol" on

the part of Labour.

A representative for Pompeo declined to comment.

ANXIETY DOWN UNDER

Australia's U.S. ambassador, Kevin Rudd, recently drew

Trump's ire over past criticism of the former president.

In a broadcast interview last month, Trump said he had heard

that Rudd, an ex-prime minister, was "a little bit nasty" and

that: "If he's at all hostile, he will not be there long."

Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong has defended Rudd, saying

he would stay as ambassador if Trump won back power.

Behind the scenes, Rudd is trying to protect a key defense

deal from being unwound by Trump, an Australia-based diplomatic

source said.

The Biden administration has agreed to help Australia take

its first step toward developing a fleet of nuclear-powered

submarines by selling Canberra three to five Virginia-class

attack submarines.

Rudd has pushed Canberra to act fast on enacting legislation

that moves it closer to U.S. arms-control standards and sets up

a special nuclear-safety body, in the hope it would make the

sale harder for Trump to unpick, the source said.

The embassy declined to comment. Canberra did not

immediately respond to a request for comment.

Michael Shoebridge, of Strategic Analysis Australia, said

Trump's "America First" could still sink the deal.

"All the levers are there for Trump to say, 'the U.S. Navy

doesn't have enough, so Australia don't get any'," the defense

expert said.

Reuters could not determine Trump's view on the matter. He

has not raised any concerns on the deal on the campaign trail.

SOUTH KOREA'S DISCREET APPROACH

A low-key way for U.S. allies to influence Trump is via

lobbyists, especially if they want to be discreet.

A former South Korean government official, now based in

Washington, said the Biden administration was watching foreign

governments closely and that Seoul preferred to understand

Trump's thinking via lobbying firms in a "stealthy manner".

Washington's lobbyist district is buzzing with South Koreans

keen to understand Trump's views on trade and investment,

including what would happen to Biden's Inflation Reduction Act

(IRA), a South Korean government official said.

South Korea's foreign ministry said it was working with its

local missions to prepare for the election and its aftermath but

that it had not hired lobbyists for specific candidates.

IRA supports the re-shoring of manufacturing and the energy

transition. Trump also backs re-shoring but not Biden's push to

switch from fossil fuels to green power.

Some U.S. allies are using lobbyists linked to Trump,

including Ballard Partners, run by Brian Ballard, a Florida

lobbyist who is sought out for his close links to Trump.

Ballard's clients include Japan and the Democratic Republic

of Congo, according to the firm and U.S. disclosure filings. It

declined to name others.

"Many members of our firm have been longtime allies of the

former president," said Justin Sayfie, a partner with Ballard.

Japan's foreign ministry said it sought advice and support

from a wide range of experts. It declined to comment on the

relationship with Ballard. Congo did not immediately respond to

a request for comment.

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