*

Congress risks losing another national election and status

as

main opposition

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Defectors to ruling BJP blame dynastic internal politics

and

poor leadership

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BJP says regional parties could be bigger threat to its

dominance

By Rupam Jain

RAEBARELI/HALOL, India, April 11 (Reuters) - The city of

Raebareli in northern India has for most of the last 75 years

been the political fiefdom of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty that

dominates the once-powerful Congress party and provided three of

the nation's prime ministers. But, with India's general election

just weeks away, the party's central offices there tell the

story of its decline.

Clothes dried in the courtyard, while a washing machine

beeped and a family living out of the office went about its

morning chores. No other Congress workers were present.

"Some people here say the end of the Gandhi era is now

imminent," said teacher K.C. Shukla, a Congress member who

resides in the house where his relatives had set up a party

office decades ago.

Raebareli is one of just 17 constituencies being contested

by the Congress party in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous

state. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party

(BJP) is targeting a clean sweep of its 80 seats in the lower

house of parliament.

Virtually all opinion polls suggest Modi's Hindu nationalist

party will return to power for a rare third term - and dominate

in Uttar Pradesh - when results from the seven-phase election

are announced on June 4.

Neither party has yet named its candidate for Raebareli, though

both BJP and Congress officials said an announcement would be

made this week. The seat was represented by Congress's long-time

president, Sonia Gandhi, from 2004 until she entered the upper

house of parliament this year.

Reuters interviewed 21 lawmakers, party officials and analysts,

including 13 members of Congress, for this story. Many of them

described a party that faces another big loss in Uttar Pradesh,

and risks losing its status as India's main opposition group as

rival regional parties make gains elsewhere in the country.

They blamed what they described as lacklustre management by

Sonia and her son Rahul, Modi's leading national critic, and the

family's inability to rally the country's fractured centre and

centre-left opposition.

Over two dozen opposition parties, including Congress, formed

the anti-BJP "INDIA" coalition last year but the bloc has been

riven by bickering and defections by important members.

Major regional parties such as West Bengal's Trinamool

Congress (TMC) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar

Pradesh have declined to contest the election with Congress and

are running candidates against both BJP and the Gandhis' party.

Rahul's office declined an interview request. When asked by

Reuters at a campaign rally about his political future and

opinion polls, he said: "My job is to spread political activism;

results can never be predicted." He did not comment when asked

about divisions among the opposition.

Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge told Reuters that the

"alliance reflects the true spirit of democracy: we are together

against Modi," though Congress was willing to fight alone if

needed.

Asked about the risk of Congress losing its status as one of

India's big two parties, Kharge said his focus was on defeating

the BJP's Hindu nationalist ideology, and not Congress's

strength relative to other parties.

The BJP's critics, who say that Modi's government discriminates

against religious minorities such as Muslims and has weaponised

law enforcement agencies against political opponents, fear a

third term would be corrosive to democracy in the world's most

populous nation.

The government has rejected allegations that it has hounded

opposition leaders with federal investigations and Modi denies

that there is religious discrimination in India.

Modi's aides have also downplayed concerns from

left-of-centre parties that he will amend the constitution to

remove references to secularism, a move that BJP's critics say

would fulfil his Hindu majoritarian agenda.

"BJP's vision of single-party rule in the country is an

approach opposed to India's diversity and pluralism," said

Congress federal lawmaker Shashi Tharoor.

RISE OF REGIONAL PARTIES

Jawaharlal Nehru - Rahul's great-grandfather - was India's first

prime minister and his Congress party ruled India for 54 of the

76 years since independence. Rahul's grandfather, born Feroze

Gandhy, changed his last name after being inspired by Mahatma

Gandhi.

Many Indians had an emotional connection with the Gandhi

family, said political analyst Rasheed Kidwai, the author of

three books about Congress and the clan.

Such was their influence that for decades, "there were no

factional leaders within the Congress," he said, adding that a

longstanding combination of fear and respect for the family had

recently dwindled.

Rahul continues to lead public rallies and his 52-year-old

sister, Priyanka, is a top party strategist. But the family

looks set to preside over a third straight loss in national

elections and Priyanka most recently led Congress to a crushing

defeat in Uttar Pradesh's 2022 state polls, harming the prestige

of the Gandhi name, according to political analysts.

Congress has fallen behind BJP in the fundraising stakes - and

lost access to some finances as a result of tax probes.

Meanwhile, influential regional parties have raised billions of

rupees in funds through opaque campaign finance mechanisms such

as electoral trusts and bonds, according to a Reuters review of

public records.

Dinesh Singh, a minister in the BJP-run Uttar Pradesh state

government, told Reuters that his party's main challengers in

the state - which many experts see as a bellwether for public

opinion due to its size - were two regional parties, including

BSP, who are contesting more than 40 seats.

The Gandhis "will be phased out completely," he predicted of

the upcoming election.

Pankaj Tiwari, a senior Congress leader in Raebareli, said

that Priyanka - who has never held elected office - would likely

contest the Uttar Pradesh district and "will win with a record

high margin."

Congress president Kharge said it would be a mistake to

assume his party does not pose a challenge to BJP nationally.

Congress is running on a platform that includes expanding

affirmative action programs for marginalised castes and

guaranteed jobs for young Indians.

There have also been of unity among the opposition after

the recent arrest of Delhi's chief minister, a top Modi critic.

DEFECTIONS FROM LOYALISTS

More than 8,000 politicians from Congress and other parties,

including key youth leaders and prominent state leaders, have

defected to BJP since Modi took power in 2014, according to data

from the ruling party.

Reuters was unable to verify the figures independently, but

three Congress leaders said BJP's numbers appeared to be

generally accurate.

Some opposition leaders who were the subject of investigations

by law enforcement agencies such as the powerful Enforcement

Directorate - which has probed more than 100 opposition

politicians since 2014 - have defected. Many of the inquiries

were subsequently dropped or put on hold.

But six former Congress leaders who switched allegiances - none

of whom have been accused of wrongdoing - told Reuters that they

left the party because of mismanagement.

Chunnilal Sahu, a lawmaker from the mineral-rich

Chhattisgarh state who defected to BJP in 2023, accused his

former party's leaders of failing to take accountability for

past electoral defeats at local level.

"Instead of introspection in case of defeat, they just

ignored the reasons," he told Reuters. "They don't conduct

proper surveys ... There is no change. There is a group of

people who run the party like a private limited company."

BJP federal minister Jyotiraditya Scindia and his late father

were Congress loyalists and key aides to the Gandhi family. But

left Congress in 2020, saying the Gandhis did not clearly

indicate how they saw his political future.

"Many of those who made the shift realised that the

(dynastic) politics of Congress will eclipse the genuine

ambition of all other leaders," he told Reuters.

In 2022, Tharoor, a former top U.N. official popular with Indian

liberals and youth, lost a race for Congress's presidency to

Kharge, a Gandhi loyalist now in his 80s. The result was

interpreted as extending the family's clout over Congress.

Asked about Congress's prospects under Gandhi leadership,

Tharoor declined to comment.

Rahul has recently made efforts to appeal to the masses.

Last month, he completed a 6,713 kilometers (4,200 miles) march

across 15 states in an attempt to spread Congress' message,

after a similar 3,500-km (2,200 miles) effort in 2023 was met

with large crowds.

Speaking from an open-top jeep in March to a crowd of hundreds

in Halol, an industrial town in Modi's home state of Gujarat,

Rahul attacked the prime minister for his perceived closeness

with Indian billionaires such as Reliance Industries chief

Mukesh Ambani and port tycoon Gautam Adani.

"I am here to tell you how Modi government is working at the

behest of country's richest people: the Adanis and Ambanis," he

said.

While India has increasingly suffered from growing disparity

between the rich and poor, polls show that Modi has not been

politically scathed by allegations that he improperly favoured

some industrialists.

Modi's aides rejected the accusations, saying that voters

would end a culture of nepotism by voting against Congress.

Congress loyalists said the party might be in disarray, but

that the Gandhis were still their best hope for a serious

challenge.

"I really hope members of the Gandhi family continue to

contest from Raebareli," said Shukla, the teacher whose house

doubles as a Congress office, as he gestured toward a prayer

room where three generations of Gandhis have performed

pre-election religious rituals.