Aug 21 (Reuters) - Donald J. Trump's golf club in

Jupiter, Florida, where multi-million-dollar villas flank the

greens of an 18-hole course, reflects the new geography of his

family business. Long based in New York, the Trump Organization

has gravitated recently to Florida's southeast coast, where its

golf and resort properties now pay the bills.

A decade ago, before Trump ran for president for the first

time as a Republican in 2016, his golf courses and resorts were

a drain on the company's cash flow, which mostly came from real

estate, according to a Reuters analysis of court and tax records

and other financial disclosures.

But today, the golf and resort business is the biggest

driver of the company's cash flow - accounting for about

four-fifths of the approximately $80 million in cash after

operating expenses that will be generated this year by the

hundreds of companies ultimately owned by Donald Trump, known

collectively as the Trump Organization. The group's annual

revenues are over $600 million, according to the Reuters

estimate.

The analysis is the first detailed estimate of Trump's

projected 2024 income, as he contests November's presidential

election. It is based on financial statements and other

information provided as part of court cases, regulatory filings

by Trump Organization entities and their partners, U.S. tax

records and other documents.

The health of Trump's golf business is a bright spot at a

precarious moment for the Trump Organization: it faces more than

$530 million of court judgments and interest against Trump, some

family members who hold senior roles, and his companies; a weak

commercial real estate market in New York; and the question of

what happens if Trump loses a tight race for the presidency.

If enforced, the court judgments would exceed the amount of

cash that Trump said he had as of this March, via a social media

post: "almost five hundred million dollars."

Reuters shared its detailed projections with former

president Trump's son Eric who runs the family business, and two

other senior Trump Organization executives, and Trump's campaign

representatives.

"The Trump Organization is the strongest it has ever been,"

Eric Trump said in a written response. "We have the best and

most iconic assets anywhere in the world and I am incredibly

proud of not only everything the company has accomplished, but

also everything my father has accomplished in the political

world."

He did not comment directly on the financial estimates or

other specifics shared by Reuters, and the others did not

respond.

The news agency also interviewed more than a dozen business

associates, real estate and leisure industry experts, and people

familiar with Trump properties.

On paper, much of Trump's wealth is tied up in his majority

stake in Trump Media & Technology Group ( DJT ), owner of social

media platform Truth Social. Shares of the media company have

been pumped sky-high in large part by retail investors

enthusiastic about Trump's brand and his prospects in November's

election.

After surging early this year, stock has fallen by more than

half, but the company - in which Trump holds a stake of more

than 50% - still has a market capitalization of about $4.5

billion. As of Monday, that stake was worth about $2.5 billion

The media company, however, adds nothing to Trump's cash

flows - it is a separate company from the Trump Organization and

it generated a loss of $58 million last year on revenues of

just $4 million. His shares in Trump Media ( DJT ) are locked up by a

corporate agreement that expires in September. If faced with a

large legal bill after that, Trump could unload those shares

piecemeal - selling all at once could cause the stock to tank -

or sell off assets like buildings.

JEWEL IN THE CROWN

Last week Trump submitted his latest U.S. Office of

Government Ethics candidate financial disclosure. This included

the revenues from some of his businesses and fees received for

endorsements, such as a $300,000 fee for promoting a bible

published by a country singer. The disclosure consists mostly of

broad ranges of value Trump has ascribed to his businesses and

ranges of revenues that these businesses generated across 2023

and part of 2024, rather than estimates of the cash he earns.

The jewel in the crown of Trump's business is the Mar-a-Lago

Club in Palm Beach, the ornate resort where the former President

lives and receives a stream of politicians and

influence-seekers: that will generate an estimated $24 million

in cash in 2024, according to the Reuters analysis.

Three nearby golf-focused properties are also resurgent,

with revenue jumping in the wake of the Covid pandemic. Trump

National Doral, the expansive but leveraged Miami-area golf hub,

will generate an estimated $10.5 million cash, while smaller

clubs in Jupiter and West Palm Beach will yield an estimated

$8.4 million and $10.4 million, respectively, according to the

Reuters estimates.

The rise in golf-related cashflow underlines Trump's

popularity with a core of affluent Americans, especially in

strongholds of his Make America Great Again movement like

Florida.

Trump "has galvanized people who are his base to come spend

their money at his places because they want a piece of him,"

said Christopher Henry, CEO of consultants Majestic Hospitality

Group.

Reuters based its analysis on the clubs' past profitability,

as disclosed in court documents, adjusted for the increased

revenues predicted by the Trump Organization and checked against

Trump's most recent Office of Government Ethics disclosures.

Reuters' estimates exclude major capital expenditure on

upgrades to the Trump properties, which can be significant, said

Doug McCoy, a professor of finance at Indiana University. While

the news agency found no public reports of such renovations,

that could mean the Reuters cash flow estimate is too high.

Florida-based golf consultant Stephen Eisenberg said major

course renovations are required every 10 to 15 years.

In addition to McCoy, Reuters vetted its analysis with three

independent experts in the real estate and resort industries -

an investment bank analyst, a finance professor and an industry

executive. None of them took issue with the overall approach or

underlying calculations.

Golf course owner and consultant Kenny Nairn said some in

the industry are bracing for a possible cooling in the Florida

market after a heady few years. More than a dozen new golf

courses are being built in the state, which will increase

competition for members and playing fees.

Trump's Florida courses had margins of over 30% across 2021,

2022 and the first five months of 2023, according to documents

released as part of the fraud trial.

"Most clubs here in Florida are in the 8% to 10% NOI (net

operating income). If you have a fantastic year, you can be up

to 15%, 17%," Nairn said, adding that he could not see those

profit margins being sustained.

LEGAL TROUBLES IN NEW YORK

In 2022, New York's attorney general brought a fraud case

against the Trumps for overstating the valuation of their

properties for economic gain. The prosecution was successful: a

judge in February fined the former president, his companies, and

two eldest sons $363 million. Including interest, the fine

stands at more than $450 million.

The ruling temporarily barred Donald, Eric and Donald Jr.

from serving as an officer or director of a New York-based

company, and mandated an independent monitor and director of

compliance, citing the fraud conviction and inadequate internal

controls.

Trump has posted a $175 million bond while the case is on

appeal and Eric Trump remains in charge of the Trump

Organization. There is also an $83.3 million defamation verdict

against Trump as a private defendant, which is also being

appealed.

Days after the valuation judgment in New York, the Trump

Organization said it had shifted a series of legal entities

foundational to its business from Manhattan to Florida,

including to the address of its Jupiter golf club. The

reorganization, though, appears to have been blocked by the

judge, who ruled Trump could not evade the terms of its

monitorship through "change in corporate form." Eric Trump and

the Trump Organization did not comment on this.

The Manhattan Supreme Court judge, Arthur Engoron, did not

respond to an email seeking comment. The New York attorney

general's office declined to comment.

Florida has been friendlier. In March, the state's

Republican attorney general joined a legal brief supporting the

former president before the U.S. Supreme Court; it called the

New York case against Trump a "shocking" and partisan attempt to

bankrupt him. The Florida attorney general's office did not

respond to a request for comment.

NEW EXPANSION, OLD DEBTS

Reinforcing the growing importance of Florida, the Trump

Organization is seeking approval from the city of Doral, just

outside Miami, to build nearly 1,500 residential units at his

golf resort there. It would be the group's first major new

property development since completing a set of condominium-hotel

towers in Las Vegas and Chicago in 2008 and 2009, respectively.

In New York, however, a cooling of the commercial property

market poses a problem for the Trump Organization.

Coming due in 2025 is Trump's approximately $120 million

loan on 40 Wall Street - an office skyscraper in Manhattan where

occupancy and income have declined. The building was one-fifth

empty at the end of last year, according to Fitch Ratings.

Falling rents and a sharp rise in interest rates mean that

buildings like 40 Wall Street are typically unable to generate

the revenues to service the high levels of debt they did during

the commercial property boom before the pandemic, according to

Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a professor of real estate and finance

at Columbia University.

The Trump Organization for now is building its business from

Jupiter, the wealthy beach town known for golf courses and

big-name residents nearby, such as Michael Jordan and Tiger

Woods.

Eric and Donald Jr. both live in town with their families

and work a short ride away at Trump National Golf Club Jupiter.

It's there that they applied for permits earlier this year to

build a three-story, nearly 46,000 square foot headquarters for

what company literature refers to as the "Trump Golf empire."

In February, Eric Trump went on Fox News from Florida to

decry the valuation fraud ruling against the family business as

politically motivated.

"The best thing I ever did," he said, "was get out of New

York."