* Assets in money market funds reach $8 trillion amid
Iran conflict
* Investors seek safety in cash due to oil price surge
and inflation fears
* Financial advisors warn against excessive risk aversion
in money market funds
By Suzanne McGee
PROVIDENCE, RHODE ISLAND, March 20 (Reuters) - As the
Iran conflict intensifies, the spike in oil prices and rising
inflation fears are spurring investors to ditch stocks as too
risky and shun traditional safe havens such as gold in favor of
money market funds.
The result: assets in those ultra-short-term and ultra-safe
Treasury funds are now hovering around $8 trillion, according to
calculations from providers such as the Investment Company
Institute, JPMorgan Chase and Crane Data, which specializes in
tracking money market flows. While their methodology varies and
precise calculations range from $7.8 trillion to $8.1 trillion,
the sources agree that assets have hit a record amid the
conflict.
"When you have times of dislocation and times of fear, cash
is the only thing that makes sense to a lot of people, because
there's the belief that you 'can't lose' by holding it," said
Malcolm Polley, director of strategic market analysis with
Stratos Investment Management, a wealth management firm. He
added that he is reassuring some of his clients that "the world
is not coming to an end just yet."
"This is the 'wait-and-see' money coming from investors who
are wary about what's happening right now," said Sweta Singh,
founding partner at money management firm City Different
Investments.
The latest catalyst for the steady flow of assets into money
market funds is the impact of soaring crude oil prices on the
economy and inflation. Brent crude futures rose 1.2% on
Thursday to $108.65 a barrel, after trading as much as 10%
higher during the day.
"Gold, silver and currencies are increasingly being driven
by oil" prices, said Steven Wieting, co-founder of CIO Group, a
wealth management firm. "As all risk assets take on this
uncertain path, dependent on oil, it is natural for cash to
build on the sidelines."
The longer prices linger at lofty levels, the greater toll
they will take on everything from consumer spending to corporate
earnings, market strategists are cautioning investors.
"There are few places to hide from this near-term supply shock,"
analysts at the BlackRock Investment Institute wrote in
a client note published on Monday. "Government bonds and gold
are not providing ballast as equities fall." Treasuries are no
safe haven either, given the potential for inflation to climb
further and already-high government debt to rise as the cost of
conducting the war mounts.
"The elephant in the room is stagflation," said Jacob
Taurel, managing partner at Activest Wealth Management, adding
that he believes this combination of inflation and stagnant or
negative growth is "a real risk."
To some, that offers a great case for putting money to one
side in a product that currently offers yields north of 3% and,
in a handful of cases, approaching 4%, depending on the
financial institution. In the first few days of the Iran war,
Deborah Cunningham, chief investment officer of global liquidity
markets at Federated Hermes, said in an analysis published
earlier this month that the "collective negative vibe often
sends investors to safer harbors," a category she told Reuters
includes money market funds.
Cunningham told Reuters she pegs the size of that cash
mountain in money markets at $8.3 trillion.
Financial advisors, however, are cautioning their clients
about being carried away by their risk aversion and putting too
much money into money market funds.
"The problem with going to cash is that you have to make two
separate decisions correctly: when to get into cash and when to
move back into other assets," said Polley.
"When people are scared, they can be irrational."