*
Wary investors move to "risk off" mode as geopolitical
tension
mounts
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Crude oil prices spike higher on outbreak of hostilities
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US VIX volatility measure at highest point in 3 weeks
(Updates Saturday story with comment, details)
By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Suzanne McGee and Linda Pasquini
NEW YORK/GDANSK, June 14 (Reuters) -
Investors were on edge ahead of markets reopening late on
Sunday, with risks ranging from heightened prospects of a broad
Middle East war to U.S.-wide protests against President Donald
Trump that threatened more domestic chaos.
Israel and Iran launched fresh attacks on each other into
Sunday, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying Israeli
strikes would intensify as Tehran called off nuclear talks that
Washington had held out as the only way to halt the bombing.
Meanwhile, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis joined the fray.
Oil prices rose by 7% on Friday, as Israel and
Iran traded strikes, and investors will be watching closely to
see how the price reacts when markets open later.
"So far we are at a stage of 'controlled
confrontation'", said Lombard Odier's chief economist Samy
Chaar, where it is too soon to call for real and persistent
economic damage despite high risk.
"For now, you get spikes in the oil price, you get
volatility, everyone's a bit nervous, but there is no clear sign
that we're moving towards the no-return type of scenario," he
said.
On Saturday, Israel appeared to have also hit Iran's oil
and gas industry for the first time, with Iranian state media
reporting a blaze at a gas field.
Israel's air offensive against Iran that began early on
Friday, killing commanders and scientists and bombing nuclear
sites in a stated bid to stop Tehran building an atomic weapon,
knocked risky assets including stocks, on Friday. It also lifted
oil prices and prompted a rush into gold and the dollar, which
resumed its role as a safe-haven asset for the first time in
months.
Oil prices at close to six-month highs could pose a risk
to the inflation outlook, as central banks around the world
grapple with the impact on prices from Trump's trade tariffs and
the effect on economic growth.
Lombard Odier's Chaar said a spike in oil prices should not
in theory derail monetary policy for now, as possible disruption
to Iranian oil supplies could be partly offset by output rises
elsewhere.
"It seems to me that long gone are the days when a
central bank would hike rates because of a spike in the oil
prices," Chaar said, adding that policymakers will more likely
stay focused on economic fundamentals and demand drivers.
Investors are nervous though, and the S&P 500 appears to
have stalled after rallying about 20% from its trade war-induced
April low to near record highs.
"The overall risk profile from the geopolitical situation is
still too high for us to be willing to rush back into the
market," said Alex Morris, chief investment officer of F/m
Investments in Washington.
Meanwhile,
protests
, organised by the "No Kings" coalition to oppose
Trump
's policies, and the
assassination
of two Minnesota state lawmakers on Saturday, added to
downbeat sentiment.
U.S. stock futures are set to resume trading at 6 p.m. (2200
GMT) on Sunday.
With risky assets sinking, investors' expectations for
near-term stock market gyrations jumped.
The Cboe Volatility Index, often called the Wall
Street "fear index", rose 2.8 points to finish at 20.82 on
Friday, its highest close in three weeks.
Michael Thompson, co-portfolio manager at boutique
investment firm Little Harbor Advisors, said he would be
watching near-term volatility futures prices for any rise toward
or above the level for futures set to expire months from now.
"This would indicate to us that near-term hedging is
warranted," he said.