July 15 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) raised its
net interest income forecast for 2025 after strong performance
in its investment banking and trading divisions helped it
surpass profit expectations for the second quarter.
The bank now expects about $95.5 billion of NII, or the
difference between what it earns on loans and pays out on
deposits, compared with an earlier estimate of nearly $94.5
billion.
"The U.S. economy remained resilient," CEO Jamie Dimon said
in a statement. "The finalization of tax reform and potential
deregulation are positive for the economic outlook. However,
significant risks persist - including from tariffs and trade
uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal
deficits and elevated asset prices."
Market activity surged as investors seized opportunities and
hedged risks in response to shifting U.S. tariff policies. The
turmoil propelled JPMorgan's ( JPM ) trading revenue 15% higher to $8.9
billion, driven by gains in both fixed income and equities.
Investment banking fees also rose 7% to $2.5 billion,
underpinned by a rise in mergers and acquisitions and debt
underwriting.
Both trading and investment banking performed better than
management's earlier guidance. In May, the bank had projected a
mid-teens percentage drop in investment banking fees, while
trading revenue was expected to grow by a mid-to-high
single-digit percentage.
Headcount fell by more than 1,300 employees to 317,160, but
JPMorgan's ( JPM ) workforce remains the largest among its peers after a
rapid expansion in recent quarters. The bank expects it to be
flat in 2025.
Excluding one-off costs, JPMorgan ( JPM ) earned $4.96 per share,
compared with the $4.48 per share that analysts were expecting,
according to estimates compiled by LSEG.
Provision for credit losses was $2.85 billion, compared with
$3.05 billion a year earlier.
Shares were marginally down before the open.
POLICY CLOUDS OUTLOOK
Investors are closely scrutinizing banks' results and their
executives' commentary this quarter to assess the impact of
tariffs and the tax and spending bill signed into law by
President Donald Trump earlier this month.
The bill is estimated to add more than $3 trillion to U.S.
debt over the next decade, sparking backlash from some
Republicans and Trump allies like Elon Musk who have raised
concerns about fiscal irresponsibility.
However, while uncertainty has clouded the outlook, there
were bright spots for lenders during the second quarter.
JPMorgan ( JPM ) was among 22 large banks that aced the Federal
Reserve's stress tests, enabling it to boost its quarterly
dividend and announce $50 billion in stock buybacks.
The Fed also advanced a proposal to overhaul the "enhanced
supplementary leverage ratio," which could lower the capital
large global banks such as JPMorgan ( JPM ) must hold against relatively
low-risk assets.
The bank's overall profit fell 17% in the second quarter,
but the comparison was skewed because of a nearly $8 billion
one-off gain it had recorded on a share exchange agreement with
Visa last year.