NEW YORK, Oct 18 (Reuters) - Four accounts on

crypto-based prediction market Polymarket that placed large bets

on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 election, and

have been the subject of much online speculation, are owned by

non-Americans or a non-American, according to a source familiar

with the matter on Friday.

Opinion polls indicate a likely close match between Trump

and Vice President Kamala Harris in the vote on Nov. 5. However,

the odds have diverged on Polymarket, with Trump pulling

strongly ahead at a 60% chance of winning versus Harris on 40%.

The trade was driven by four accounts that placed more

than $30 million worth of bets, according to the source,

confirming an earlier story in the Wall Street Journal.

Political pundits and social media users have questioned

whether specific high-profile Americans could be behind the

moves.

But Polymarket does not allow Americans to make U.S.

election bets on the exchange, and the source confirmed that

Polymarket's users are international. The source said the

company certifies all of its large traders to ensure they are

not logging in via VPNs to obscure which country they are in.

Reuters could not immediately determine if the four accounts

represent a single trader or many.

Given the size and impact of the bets, Polymarket is

investigating the activity in partnership with outside experts,

the person said, confirming the Wall Street Journal's reporting.

A $30 million bet on Trump on Polymarket would be equivalent to

about 1% of trading volume on the platform related to the

presidential race.

Americans have faced steep restrictions on betting on U.S.

elections online. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has

previously rejected applications to offer contracts or

derivatives that allow Americans to bet on elections.

CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam said in a September 2023

statement that such event contracts would effectively turn the

agency into an "election cop," a duty for which the CFTC lacked

a mandate.

"It makes sense for the CFTC to have authority to combat

fraud, manipulation, and false reporting in underlying commodity

markets," Behnam said at the time. "But it is impractical for

the CFTC to combat them in the underlying market here - a

political contest."

Proponents argued the contracts could be a valuable new

financial tool to provide insight on the future.

In November 2023, Kalshi, another betting exchange, sued the

CFTC over its ban on U.S. election betting. A federal appeals

court sided with Kalshi on Oct. 2, paving the way for Americans

to start trading on political races just one month ahead of the

election.

Kalshi has Trump at 57% and Harris at 43%.

In an emailed statement, Kalshi said: "Our stance on Trump's

surge in odds is that it's all part of normal market activity.

Trump is simply gaining popularity, and prediction markets

aggregate information from a wider audience at a faster pace

than polls."

The CFTC did not respond to requests for comment.