04:32 PM EDT, 03/18/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Lululemon Athletica ( LULU ) has a slight negative bias heading into the March 21 fourth-quarter print with solid holiday trends previously discussed by management, but soft first-quarter sales could lead to volatility after the event, UBS said.

The brokerage is guiding for revenue growth of about 16% to $3.22 billion in the fourth quarter, slightly above the consensus view of $3.19 billion. Its adjusted earnings per share target of $5.02 is also above the Street's view of $5, Monday's emailed note showed.

"We anticipate that the international region will be the primary driver of sales growth as it benefits from ongoing unit expansion and recovery of the Greater China region," UBS analysts including Jay Sole and Mauricio Serna wrote.

Lululemon demand likely remained robust in the quarter that included the key holiday shopping period, they said, with management commentary previously suggesting such a scenario. UBS is modeling sales growth of 10% year over year to $2.21 billion in the US and 9.5% to $414 million in Canada. In China, it expects sales to jump 58% to $310 million. Rest of world sales are projected to rise 52% to $287 million.

UBS Evidence Lab's China Online Market Monitor showed gross merchandise value rose 102% on an annual basis last quarter, with momentum continuing into the first quarter.

However, UBS checks suggest the athleisure retailer's US trends are soft in the current quarter. The analysts also see a "low probability" that Lululemon's fiscal 2024 guidance beats expectations. This may be partly why the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by around 1,635 basis points year to date, Sole and Serna said.

A full-year EPS guidance range of $14.40 to $14.60, which would essentially be in line with Lululemon's long-term algorithm, and first-quarter EPS guidance of $2.40 to $2.45, are seen by UBS as the "bars" for the event. Analysts on average are modeling for 2024 and first-quarter normalized EPS of $14.30 and $2.57, respectively, according to Capital IQ.

"Whatever plays out, we sense a large group of investors will be surprised and this is why we see potential for a big (price-to-earnings) move," the analysts said.

Price: 459.19, Change: -0.38, Percent Change: -0.08