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Lyft's Long-Term Tailwinds Include Reduced Insurance Costs in California, Oppenheimer Says
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Lyft's Long-Term Tailwinds Include Reduced Insurance Costs in California, Oppenheimer Says
Sep 17, 2025 11:29 AM

02:11 PM EDT, 09/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Lyft ( LYFT ) will likely benefit from long-term tailwinds such as reduced insurance costs in California and the integration of recently-acquired European taxi app Freenow, Oppenheimer said in a Wednesday note.

The brokerage raised its forecasts for the ride-hailing company's 2027 gross bookings and core earnings by 2% and 6%, respectively, taking into account a 70% reduction in insurance liability requirements in California and the impact of Freenow's integration.

California's reduced rideshare per car liability coverage, which should slash fare pricing, is set to take effect in January, Oppenheimer analysts Chad Larkin and Jason Helfstein said in the note.

"While new riders and increased frequency won't react immediately, tailwinds should build overtime," Larkin and Helfstein said. "Additionally, drivers now have the right to unionize beginning in 2027."

Lyft ( LYFT ) completed the acquisition of Freenow in July, saying it will double its addressable market to more than 300 billion personal vehicle trips per year.

Oppenheimer is now projecting gross bookings of $24.03 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $900 million for 2027. Analysts polled by FactSet are currently looking for 2027 gross bookings of $23.5 billion and EBITDA of $830.7 million.

For 2026, the brokerage is looking at gross bookings of $21.31 billion, up 1% from its previous estimate, and adjusted EBITDA of $684 million, down 1% from the prior forecast. Analysts expect gross bookings of $21.08 billion and EBITDA of $662.5 million for next year.

Oppenheimer reiterated its outperform rating on the stock while lifting the price target to $24 from $17.

Price: 22.80, Change: +2.61, Percent Change: +12.90

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