*

Sees 2025 container market volumes in a range of -1% to

+4%

*

Had previously estimated growth of 4%

*

Q1 EBITDA $2.71 billion vs forecast $2.41 billion

(Adds Maersk comments in paragraph 4, 6, 7, 11, 15)

By Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen and Stine Jacobsen

COPENHAGEN, May 8 (Reuters) - Shipping group A.P.

Moller-Maersk warned on Thursday that a global

trade war and geopolitical uncertainty could trigger a drop in

global container volumes this year, although it left its profit

outlook unchanged.

Trade tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump have

prompted companies worldwide to cut sales targets and major

economies to revise down growth prospects, impacting demand for

shipping goods at sea.

Maersk, viewed as a barometer of world trade, said it now

expects global container volumes within a range of down 1% to up

4% this year, compared with the 4% growth estimated at the

beginning of the year.

"The outlook for global container demand over the remainder

of the year remains highly uncertain, shaped by a rapidly

evolving trade policy landscape and increasing recession risks

in the United States," Maersk said.

Many companies rushed to ship goods to the U.S. at the

beginning of the year in anticipation of potential tariffs. But

most economists are calling the Trump tariff gambit a demand

shock to the world economy which will sap global activity.

Maersk said it expects market growth in the second quarter

if customers take advantage of a 90-day pause in the bulk of

planned U.S. tariffs to build inventories.

"In the latter part of the year, there is, on the one hand,

a growing risk that demand could contract, and on the other the

possibility that trade rebounds if tariffs are rolled back," the

company said.

Maersk, whose customers include Walmart ( WMT ), Target ( TGT )

, and Nike ( NKE ), said last week that it had yet to

cancel a single trans-Pacific crossing this year, although it

had downsized some vessels.

German rival Hapag-Lloyd ( HLAGF ) said in April that its

customers had cancelled 30% of shipments to the U.S. from China.

Maersk said that policy uncertainty and the threat of a

further escalation in the trade war cast a shadow over the U.S.

economic outlook.

"If Chinese exporters redirect lost U.S. exports to other

markets, a protectionist backlash could follow, risking a

broader trade war," it warned.

Maersk still expects earnings before interest, taxes,

depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) this year of between $6

billion and $9 billion.

Its EBITDA rose 70% year-on-year to $2.71 billion in the

first three months of the year, compared with the $2.41 billion

expected by analysts in a company poll.

Maersk shares opened little changed.

RED SEA DISRUPTION

Maersk also said it expects Red Sea disruption to continue

throughout the year, despite comments by Trump on Tuesday that

the U.S. would stop bombing the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.

Maersk and rivals have benefited from longer sailing times

and soaring freight rates as ships are rerouted around Africa as

Houthi militants have kept up attacks on Red Sea vessels in what

they say is in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

Trump said the Houthis had agreed to stop attacking U.S.

ships, but the group later said the deal did not include sparing

Israel, suggesting its shipping attacks would not come to a

complete halt.

There have been no reports of Houthi attacks on shipping in

the Red Sea area since January.