02:24 PM EDT, 04/06/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Major US banks' first-quarter results are expected to either match consensus estimates or top them, though economic uncertainties and stagflation risks will likely keep them from increasing full-year guidance, BofA Securities said Monday.

JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) , Wells Fargo ( WFC ) , Citigroup ( C/PN ) (C), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley ( MS ) are scheduled to report next week, along with Bank of New York Mellon ( BK ) and State Street (STT). Northern Trust's ( NTRS ) quarterly financials are due out on April 21.

"We expect all eight banks to report in-line to better (first-quarter) results, (but) anticipate (their) reluctance to raise (2026) guides given macro uncertainties," BofA analyst Ebrahim Poonawala said in a note to clients. "Results alone may not be enough to turn around worsening investor sentiment, informed by private credit headlines, software disruption, and rising stagflation risks."

Stagflation is characterized by slowing economic growth, high unemployment and rising prices.

JPMorgan ( JPM ) CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday identified stagflation as one of the several scenarios that could unfold as a result of current geopolitical tumult.

The brokerage expects banks to report an active trading environment and resilient investment banking activity, but investors will be more focused on earnings calls to assess downside risks to per-share earnings, according to the note. Projections for fewer interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to boost banks' net interest income outlooks.

Dimon said in a shareholder letter that supply disruptions caused by the US-Israel war with Iran could keep inflation and interest rates higher than expected. Energy prices have surged as the conflict, now in its sixth week, has curtailed shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The ongoing war has "injected further concern into an environment already rife with worry aster several (non-banking financial institution) defaults earlier this year," Poonawala said.

BofA expects the US economy to avoid a downturn, though investors may be tempted to sell rallies until macro visibility improves, Poonawala said.

The brokerage upgraded its rating on the State Street stock to neutral from underperform.

"State Street's performance has lagged best-in-class peer Bank of New York... over the last several years," Poonawala wrote. "However, given recent improvements in franchise productivity, we anticipate management will, by the middle of the year, provide updated strategic targets which imply returns closer to peer levels."

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