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Many Wall Street executives are worried about Trump but wary of Harris
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Many Wall Street executives are worried about Trump but wary of Harris
Sep 26, 2024 10:28 PM

WASHINGTON/NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Many Wall

Street executives have reservations about backing either

candidate in the U.S. presidential election, worried that former

President Donald Trump's policies will hurt the economy but wary

Vice President Kamala Harris will lean too far left.

While multiple Wall Street heavy-hitters including Bill

Ackman, John Paulson and George Soros have backed a candidate,

many other senior executives are still weighing the economic

policies central to the closely fought race and the

ramifications for legal and democratic institutions, according

to conversations with two dozen executives in recent weeks.

Despite a track record implementing Wall Street-friendly

measures, Republican candidate Trump's policies threaten to

create economic and policy instability, many executives said.

While Harris would be a safe pair of hands, she has only

been the Democratic candidate since late July when President Joe

Biden exited the race and remains a big unknown, they said. Many

worry the Vice President will continue Biden's regulatory

crackdown on lucrative Wall Street businesses.

Among the executives were Republican and Democrat

supporters, including a handful who are publicly backing Trump

or Harris, and others with no obvious partisan affiliation.

"Most expect Trump to continue where he left off, which is

certainly more populist, protectionist and aggressively

deregulatory," said Bruce Mehlman, partner at bipartisan

lobbying firm Mehlman Consulting with clients in all sectors.

"But they're eager to better understand who Harris is and

what she believes," Mehlman said, adding it did not appear that

Harris' Wednesday economic speech had offered more insight for

Wall Street firms.

As with his first presidency, Trump is promising to cut

taxes and regulations, but most executives said the benefits

could be erased by his planned import tariffs which could spark

inflation, while tax cuts could widen the U.S. deficit. Trump

ramped up his planned tariffs in comments this week.

Karoline Leavitt, Trump campaign National Press Secretary,

said in a statement that Wall Street investors want Trump to win

because they remember that his policies "fueled growth, drove

down inflation, and kept more money in everyone's pockets."

Billionaire investor and Trump backer Paulson told Reuters

on the sidelines of a September New York event at which Trump

outlined his economic plan that tariffs would boost revenues,

helping to reduce the deficit.

Harris' plan, which analysts predict would be better for the

economy, calls for hiking taxes, likely denting company earnings

and stocks but partly offsetting an expected widening of the

deficit. She has said little on financial policy but has touted

her tough stance on banks as a former prosecutor and said she

will continue Biden's assault on hidden bank fees.

A Harris spokesperson pointed Reuters to endorsements by

hundreds of economists and CEOs.

In an email to Reuters, billionaire entrepreneur and Harris

backer Mark Cuban noted that stocks rose when company taxes were

higher, adding: "Anything that is a step towards reducing the

deficit is a plus." But he said that both candidates are making

promises they may not be able to keep. "Neither candidate's

policies have any details about how they would get passed."

For many firms, a Harris White House and Republican Senate,

which would block tax increases and force Harris to pick

moderates for top jobs, is the best-case scenario.

So far, donors tied to the securities and investment sectors

have given $8.7 million to the Biden/Harris campaign versus

about $3 million to Trump, data from nonpartisan donations

tracker OpenSecrets as of Aug. 21 shows.

Those contributions, capped in the thousands of dollars,

come from individuals and political action committees (PACs) and

are not comprehensive because there are several other ways to

route cash to support candidates.

STABILITY, POPULISM

In a nod to the policy whiplash and personnel churn of

Trump's first presidency, his felony conviction and role in the

Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, some executives also

worried Trump would undermine Democracy and the rule of law. A

few flagged concerns about his stances on Federal Reserve

independence, immigration and abortion.

Michael Bright, chief executive of the Structured Finance

Association, a Washington lobby group representing lenders and

investors, said that in addition to Jan. 6, some of his members

had soured on Trump due to his role in helping to overturn

federal abortion rights when president.

"I would say financial services voters are split pretty

evenly," said Bright, whom Trump nominated in 2018 to run

government housing agency Ginnie Mae. Many will vote "with their

hearts" for Harris, he added.

The role of populism in personnel picks was another theme.

Several executives fretted Harris would stick with Biden's

progressive agency heads, although a few said they believe she

may be friendlier to the industry than Biden.

"She is practical and pragmatic," said Jon Henes, Harris'

national campaign finance chair in 2020 and CEO of corporate

consultancy C Street Advisory Group, adding Harris believes in

sensible regulation that allows for transparency and certainty.

A more populist Trump and Republican party may pick

inexperienced loyalists hostile to Wall Street to lead the

agencies, some executives said, although others believe he would

again pick traditional industry conservatives.

Trump's appointment of Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick

as co-chair of his transition team may be a good sign, some

said. Lutnick is tapping his Wall Street network to staff a

potential second Trump administration.

Lindsey Johnson, CEO of the Consumer Bankers Association,

said Trump can "draw from a deep well of people that were in the

Administration last time that have great experience in the

financial industry."

(Writing and reporting by Michelle Price in Washington D.C.;

Reporting by Carolina Mandl and Lananh Nguyen in New York;

Additional reporting by Douglas Gillison, Tatiana Bautzer, Saeed

Azhar, Laura Matthews, Pete Schroeder, Makailah Gause and Megan

Davies

Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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