WASHINGTON/NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Many Wall
Street executives have reservations about backing either
candidate in the U.S. presidential election, worried that former
President Donald Trump's policies will hurt the economy but wary
Vice President Kamala Harris will lean too far left.
While multiple Wall Street heavy-hitters including Bill
Ackman, John Paulson and George Soros have backed a candidate,
many other senior executives are still weighing the economic
policies central to the closely fought race and the
ramifications for legal and democratic institutions, according
to conversations with two dozen executives in recent weeks.
Despite a track record implementing Wall Street-friendly
measures, Republican candidate Trump's policies threaten to
create economic and policy instability, many executives said.
While Harris would be a safe pair of hands, she has only
been the Democratic candidate since late July when President Joe
Biden exited the race and remains a big unknown, they said. Many
worry the Vice President will continue Biden's regulatory
crackdown on lucrative Wall Street businesses.
Among the executives were Republican and Democrat
supporters, including a handful who are publicly backing Trump
or Harris, and others with no obvious partisan affiliation.
"Most expect Trump to continue where he left off, which is
certainly more populist, protectionist and aggressively
deregulatory," said Bruce Mehlman, partner at bipartisan
lobbying firm Mehlman Consulting with clients in all sectors.
"But they're eager to better understand who Harris is and
what she believes," Mehlman said, adding it did not appear that
Harris' Wednesday economic speech had offered more insight for
Wall Street firms.
As with his first presidency, Trump is promising to cut
taxes and regulations, but most executives said the benefits
could be erased by his planned import tariffs which could spark
inflation, while tax cuts could widen the U.S. deficit. Trump
ramped up his planned tariffs in comments this week.
Karoline Leavitt, Trump campaign National Press Secretary,
said in a statement that Wall Street investors want Trump to win
because they remember that his policies "fueled growth, drove
down inflation, and kept more money in everyone's pockets."
Billionaire investor and Trump backer Paulson told Reuters
on the sidelines of a September New York event at which Trump
outlined his economic plan that tariffs would boost revenues,
helping to reduce the deficit.
Harris' plan, which analysts predict would be better for the
economy, calls for hiking taxes, likely denting company earnings
and stocks but partly offsetting an expected widening of the
deficit. She has said little on financial policy but has touted
her tough stance on banks as a former prosecutor and said she
will continue Biden's assault on hidden bank fees.
A Harris spokesperson pointed Reuters to endorsements by
hundreds of economists and CEOs.
In an email to Reuters, billionaire entrepreneur and Harris
backer Mark Cuban noted that stocks rose when company taxes were
higher, adding: "Anything that is a step towards reducing the
deficit is a plus." But he said that both candidates are making
promises they may not be able to keep. "Neither candidate's
policies have any details about how they would get passed."
For many firms, a Harris White House and Republican Senate,
which would block tax increases and force Harris to pick
moderates for top jobs, is the best-case scenario.
So far, donors tied to the securities and investment sectors
have given $8.7 million to the Biden/Harris campaign versus
about $3 million to Trump, data from nonpartisan donations
tracker OpenSecrets as of Aug. 21 shows.
Those contributions, capped in the thousands of dollars,
come from individuals and political action committees (PACs) and
are not comprehensive because there are several other ways to
route cash to support candidates.
STABILITY, POPULISM
In a nod to the policy whiplash and personnel churn of
Trump's first presidency, his felony conviction and role in the
Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, some executives also
worried Trump would undermine Democracy and the rule of law. A
few flagged concerns about his stances on Federal Reserve
independence, immigration and abortion.
Michael Bright, chief executive of the Structured Finance
Association, a Washington lobby group representing lenders and
investors, said that in addition to Jan. 6, some of his members
had soured on Trump due to his role in helping to overturn
federal abortion rights when president.
"I would say financial services voters are split pretty
evenly," said Bright, whom Trump nominated in 2018 to run
government housing agency Ginnie Mae. Many will vote "with their
hearts" for Harris, he added.
The role of populism in personnel picks was another theme.
Several executives fretted Harris would stick with Biden's
progressive agency heads, although a few said they believe she
may be friendlier to the industry than Biden.
"She is practical and pragmatic," said Jon Henes, Harris'
national campaign finance chair in 2020 and CEO of corporate
consultancy C Street Advisory Group, adding Harris believes in
sensible regulation that allows for transparency and certainty.
A more populist Trump and Republican party may pick
inexperienced loyalists hostile to Wall Street to lead the
agencies, some executives said, although others believe he would
again pick traditional industry conservatives.
Trump's appointment of Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick
as co-chair of his transition team may be a good sign, some
said. Lutnick is tapping his Wall Street network to staff a
potential second Trump administration.
Lindsey Johnson, CEO of the Consumer Bankers Association,
said Trump can "draw from a deep well of people that were in the
Administration last time that have great experience in the
financial industry."
(Writing and reporting by Michelle Price in Washington D.C.;
Reporting by Carolina Mandl and Lananh Nguyen in New York;
Additional reporting by Douglas Gillison, Tatiana Bautzer, Saeed
Azhar, Laura Matthews, Pete Schroeder, Makailah Gause and Megan
Davies
Editing by Nick Zieminski)