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McDonald's Set for Strong Second-Half US Comparable Sales, UBS Says
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McDonald's Set for Strong Second-Half US Comparable Sales, UBS Says
Jun 27, 2025 9:27 AM

12:12 PM EDT, 06/27/2025 (MT Newswires) -- McDonald's (MCD) is likely to post robust same-store sales in the US in the second half of the year, underpinned by menu innovation and expanded store hours, UBS Securities said Friday.

The stock offers a buying opportunity following a recent pullback, with "reasonably limited downside for a quality business positioned for multi-year market share gains," the brokerage said.

UBS maintained a buy rating on McDonald's with a $350 price target.

While the fast-food chain's first-quarter same-store sales "were notably pressured similar to the industry, and lower income consumer weakness is likely a lingering headwind, we believe US results are positioned to strengthen in (the second half)," UBS analysts, including Dennis Geiger, said. "Our latest franchisee discussions also highlight optimism for a stronger rest of year."

Factors including menu innovation, the $5 meal deal and expanded store hours this summer should help support maker share gains and drive stronger same store sales in the second half, Geiger said.

McDonald's first-quarter revenue fell short of market estimates on May 1 while same-store sales unexpectedly declined, as geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainties dampened consumer sentiment.

During last month's earnings call, Chief Executive Chris Kempczinski said the company "can weather these difficult conditions" though is not immune to the industry volatility or the pressures facing consumers, according to a FactSet transcript.

"US trends have likely softened since a strong April that was driven by the Minecraft movie collaboration, but we believe the latest (same-store sales) trends remain positive and should get a boost over the coming months," Geiger wrote.

UBS also sees "a favorable longer-term setup" that includes unit growth acceleration to between 4% and 5% and an earnings growth rate of at least high-single-digit percentage for McDonald's.

Price: 289.47, Change: +3.84, Percent Change: +1.34

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