McDonald’s Corporation shares are trading lower on Thursday.

Yesterday, the firm reported solid global comparable sales (comps) and loyalty momentum in the third quarter. However, it experienced slower underlying growth, and a decline in company-operated restaurant sales weighed on the results.

McDonald’s reaffirmed its 2025 outlook, expecting net restaurant unit expansion to contribute slightly more than 2% to its 2025 Systemwide sales growth, in constant currencies.

Also Read: McDonald’s Sounds Alarm On US Consumer Spending

BTIG analyst Peter Saleh is encouraged by upcoming CosMc’s beverages and sees merit in a value push.

The analyst, reiterated a Neutral rating on the stock, does not expect a stronger consumer backdrop, which he believes will keep pressuring earnings.

Per Saleh, management echoed other chains’ concerns about weakness among lower-income consumers.

He noted McDonald's reported U.S. quick-service traffic for sub-$45,000 earners fell by nearly double digits.

Double-digit gains among higher-income guests partly offset that slump.

Management cited higher rent, food prices, and child care as key headwinds. They also pointed to reduced SNAP benefits as additional pressure on consumers.

Management did not see broad shutdown impacts beyond the Washington, D.C., area.

Saleh said these strains are not transitory and may extend into 2026.

He is not banking on a quick recovery and expects deep value messaging to persist.

Discounts Squeeze Margins

Saleh reminded investors that McDonald's is heavily discounting and partly subsidizing franchisees to drive sales.

Management expects about $75 million in fourth-quarter support, covering half of the Extra Value Meal discounts.

Saleh estimated an earnings impact of roughly eight cents per share.

He expects a CosMc's beverage rollout next year after successful tests in Colorado and Wisconsin.

Given moderating traffic, more normalized sales trends, and lower earnings growth, the analyst sees less opportunity for earnings upside and an above-historical-average multiple.

Price Action: MCD shares are trading 1.75% lower at $300.31 at last check on Thursday.

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