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Mitsubishi UFG Notes Still Plenty of Uncertainties After EU-U.S. Trade Deal
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Mitsubishi UFG Notes Still Plenty of Uncertainties After EU-U.S. Trade Deal
Jul 30, 2025 4:07 AM

06:42 AM EDT, 07/30/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The European Commission (EC) on Tuesday published an European Union-United States trade deal outline explaining some of the key elements of Sunday's accord, noted MUFG.

The piece interestingly refers to the "political agreement" reached and not an economic one or even a trade agreement, wrote the bank in a note to clients. The key commitments are as such political commitments -- the point being that the deal, as it stands, has no legal basis as of yet.

The outline confirms a work toward a quota-based deal on trade in steel, aluminium and copper in order to protect both the U.S. and EU markets from overcapacity. But there remains no timeline for this being implemented.

The three-year purchase of liquefied natural gas (LNG), oil and nuclear energy products worth $750 billion is confirmed and the commitment to make a further $600 billion worth of investments will be made over a period to 2029.

The final paragraph is important, with the EU stating that the political agreement isn't legally binding and that beyond the immediate actions committed, the EU and the U.S. "will further negotiate, in line with their relevant internal procedures, to fully implement the political agreement."

So, it's clear from this deal and the lack of detail in parts of the U.S.-Japan deal that ongoing negotiations are likely, which may well include renewed threats in the future over tariff rates, stated the bank.

There are oral legal hearings on Thursday in relation to the legality of President Donald Trump using the IEEPA by describing trade deficits as a national emergency. For now, the markets are relieved that deals are being done, but in time investors may well question the extent and longevity of some of these deals, according to MUFG.

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