03:37 PM EDT, 06/12/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Moderna's ( MRNA ) newly approved respiratory syncytial virus vaccine may achieve stronger than expected US penetration despite entering a market with two seasoned competitors, Oppenheimer said in a Wednesday note.

Analysts Hartaj Singh, Eka Gigaur, and Fanyi Zhong said indicated the RSV market is "large enough for three competitors."

"We increase US penetration estimates as we believe mResvia is competitive as an RSV vaccine, although expectations might be too low," they wrote. The higher price target is a reflection of those increased penetration numbers, the report showed.

Moderna ( MRNA ) late last month announced US Food and Drug Administration approval to begin marketing mResvia to the plus-60 adult market. The drug maker's vaccine follows the 2023 approvals of GSK's (GSK) vaccine Arexvy and Pfizer's ( PFE ) vaccine Abrysvo. Earlier this month, GSK's Arexvy was also approved for high-risk adults between 50 and 59 years old.

A closer look at 2023 sales of Arexvy, at $1.5 billion, and of Abrysvo, at $890 million, indicate that there's "ample room" for another market entrant, the analysts said.

They now see a smaller per-share loss of $4.24 in 2025, compared with a prior view of a $4.32 loss. They expect 2026 EPS of $0.22, improved from an earlier forecast of a $1.30 loss. Their 2026 revenue target was lifted to $7.8 billion from $6.9 billion.

While the GSK and Pfizer ( PFE ) launches showed strong vaccine efficacy in their first season on the market, their effect waned some in the second season and safety was marked by rare neurological and cardiac events, according to Oppenheimer.

"We believe mResvia's better safety profile (no rare neurological or cardiac complications) should differentiate it," the analysts said.

Oppenheimer raised its price target on the stock to $179 from $163 and reiterated an outperform rating.

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