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MongoDB's 'Disappointing' Outlook Reflects Tough Comps, AI Transition, Oppenheimer Says
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MongoDB's 'Disappointing' Outlook Reflects Tough Comps, AI Transition, Oppenheimer Says
Mar 6, 2025 11:12 AM

01:46 PM EST, 03/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- MongoDB ( MDB ) issued a "disappointing" annual financial outlook amid headwinds including difficult year-over-year comparisons, Oppenheimer said Thursday.

The database software maker late Wednesday guided for fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings between $2.44 and $2.62 a share on revenue of $2.24 billion to $2.28 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet are currently looking for $2.71 and $2.29 billion, respectively.

"Fiscal 2026 is a transition year as we execute on our go-to-market motion, while investing to prepare to capture the (artificial intelligence) opportunity," MongoDB ( MDB ) Chief Executive Dev Ittycheria said on an earnings conference call, according to a FactSet transcript.

While the company delivered a solid fourth-quarter beat, its shares will likely remain "range-bound until (year over year) comps ease and traction with AI is noted," Oppenheimer analysts Ittai Kidron and George Iwanyc said in a note to clients.

The brokerage cut its price target on the stock to $330 from $400, while reiterating its outperform rating. Shares of MongoDB ( MDB ) plummeted 24% in Thursday trade.

The company expects its full-year non-Atlas subscription sales to be down in the high-single-digits amid a roughly $50 million headwind for multiyear license revenue, interim Chief Financial Officer Srdjan Tanjga said on the call. MongoDB Atlas is a cloud database service.

"After two years of very strong multiyear performance, we expect the mix of multiyear non-Atlas revenue to not only be lower than the last two years, but also below the historical trends," Tanjga told analysts. "This is due to the fact that, in fiscal year 2026, we have a more limited set of large non-Atlas accounts that can sign multiyear deals."

MongoDB ( MDB ) faces difficult comps after two solid years in which several customers signed multiyear deals for its Enterprise Advanced offering, Oppenheimer said. "This lifted revenue/profitability in (2024/2025), but also left a smaller cohort to harvest in (2026)," Kidron and Iwanyc said.

The Voyage AI business is accelerating the company's research and development plans, though it is also front-loading investments, which is weighing on margins, according to the note.

"While we're still positive on the (overall) platform and new product opportunities, we expect investors to wait for better visibility into AI traction and progress with (2026) transition headwinds," Kidron and Iwanyc wrote.

Price: 198.98, Change: -65.15, Percent Change: -24.67

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