A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike
Dolan
Megacap Meta revived Big Tech jitters on Wall St
overnight as its pumped-up stock balked at an ostensibly decent
earnings update late Wednesday - but the mining sector was abuzz
about BHP's a possible $39 billion mega bid for Anglo
American.
In a reverse of the positive way markets treated Tesla's
beaten-down shares after a revenue miss the prior day,
Meta's headline beat triggered an out-of-hours 13% plunge in its
shares as investors appeared to focus on the scale of its
outsize spending on artificial intelligence projects.
The respective market reactions may have much to do with
investor positioning in advance - with Tesla down more than 40%
for the year before it reported and Meta up more than 40%.
Either way, the Meta retreat has dragged Wall St stock
futures back down about 0.5-1.0% ahead of
Thursday's bell and ups the ante as the 'Magnificent 7' reports
keep rolling in. Microsoft and Alphabet are under the microscope
later in the heaviest day of the earnings season so far.
With almost a third of the S&P500 reported already, nearly
80% have beaten estimates and reported earnings growth has
picked up close to 7% - back to where consensus forecasts for
the first quarter at the start of the year. And blended
first-quarter earnings estimates, which combine what's come in
with forecasts for those yet to report, have also climbed back
above 3% after a swoon earlier in the month.
Wary of the slightly jaundiced view of tech stocks this
month and mounting currency volatility in Asia, Japan's Nikkei
, South Korea's Kospi and Taiwan's benchmark
all lost 1-2% overnight.
Tech shivered in Europe on Thursday too, with STMicro
dropping 3% after the chipmaker cut full-year sales
guidance. European banks also topped the diary there but their
stocks largely batted away a series of beats.
The big corporate news was in mining and BHP's $39 billion
bid for London-listed Anglo American - a deal that would create
the world's biggest copper miner and which sent Anglo's shares
surging 13% on Thursday. Copper prices have risen more than 10%
this year.
With buoyant world growth and a likely geopolitical
scramble to secure scarce resources spurring commodity markets
of late, deal activity in the sector appears to have gone up a
gear and Britain's cheaply-valued, resource heavy FTSE 100 stock
index outperformed again to hit another record high.
Sterling was also higher.
So much for the micro - the macro view of the first three
months also hoves into view later on Thursday with the first
official cut of Q1 U.S. gross domestic product and related
inflation measures.
Consensus forecasts are for growth to have slowed to 2.4%
from 3.4% in the final quarter of last year - with core PCE
inflation estimates jumping to 3.4% from 2.0%.
However, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model has
growth running as high as 2.7% and Friday's March reading of the
Fed's favoured PCE inflation gauge will likely dominate for
anxious rates markets.
In heavy week for U.S. Treasury debt sales, two-year yields
continued to hover just under 5%.
The dollar slipped back against the euro and
sterling, but it continues to zoom ever higher against the
Japanese yen to another 34-year high of 155.68 as the
Bank of Japan starts its latest two-day meeting.
With no sign yet of any intervention to arrest the yen
slide, the indication from Japan's government is that may not be
considered until the dollar threatens 160 yen.
Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later
on Thursday:
* US Q1 gross domestic product, weekly jobless claims, March
trade balance and wholesale/retail inventories, Kansas City
Fed's April business survey
* US corporate earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Intel, Eastman
Chemical, Honeywell, Dow, Caterpillar, Union Pacific,
Bristol-Myers Squibb, Altria, Northrop Grumman, Capital One,
Nasdaq, S&P Global, VeriSign, American Airlines, Mohawk,
Southwest Airlines, PG&E, Keurig Dr Pepper, Weyerhauser,
International Paper, Wills Towers Watson, AO Smith, Western
Digital, L3Harris, Principal Financial, Cincinnati Financial,
Hartford Financial, Newmont, Dover, WW Grainger, Textron, Valero
Energy, CMS Energy, Xcel Energy, First Energy, Allegion, Royal
Caribbean etc
* Bank of Japan begins two-day policy meeting. European Central
Bank board member Isabel Schnabel speaks
* US Treasury sells $44 billion of 7-year notes
(By Mike Dolan; Editing by Toby