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Most Large Canadian Banks Can Beat Q4 Consensus Earnings Estimates, RBC Says
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Most Large Canadian Banks Can Beat Q4 Consensus Earnings Estimates, RBC Says
Nov 12, 2025 5:12 AM

07:54 AM EST, 11/12/2025 (MT Newswires) -- All of Canada's large banks - excluding National Bank of Canada ( NTIOF ) - can report stronger results than the most recent consensus estimates, RBC Capital Markets said on Wednesday.

The large Canadian banks will begin reporting Q4/25 results on December 2, 2025.

RBC analyst Darko Mihelic said his estimates indicate Q4/25 core EPS will decrease approximately 3% quarter over quarter, but increase approximately 24% year over year on average.

"The YoY increase in our core EPS estimates is primarily driven by Bank of Montreal ( BNKD ) (up ~62% YoY) and Toronto-Dominion Bank ( MLWIQXX ) (up ~23% YoY)," Mihelic said in a note to clients.

"BMO recorded peak provisions for credit losses (PCLs) in Q4/24 which has normalized since, and TD's results were impacted by higher catastrophe losses a year ago," the analyst said.

"We continue to expect muted loan growth but expect tractors and deposit mix shifts to provide upside to core net interest margins," Mihelic said.

"In our view, BMO and Bank of Nova Scotia ( BNS ) are the most likely large Canadian banks we cover to provide better than expected 2026 PCL ratio guidance during Q4/25 reporting, which could result in positive core EPS revisions."

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