04:27 PM EDT, 07/09/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US box office isn't expected to return to growth on a year-over-year basis until the fourth quarter as more films begin cycling through the market after last year's Hollywood strikes stymied production, Macquarie said in a note emailed Tuesday.

The brokerage is forecasting fourth-quarter box office revenue of $2.4 billion, lapping the Hollywood strike impact and marking a year-over-year increase of 27%, according to the report.

The forecast comes after second-quarter box office revenue fell 27% from the same period of 2023, prompting Macquarie to trim June-quarter estimates across its movie theater coverage universe. Imax ( IMAX ) remains its top pick, while Cinemark (CNK) is the brokerage's second-favorite theater name.

"The quarter was affected by the lingering effects of the Hollywood strikes, which resulted in fewer blockbuster films," analysts including Chad Beynon wrote.

Revenue of the top 10 movies in the second quarter dropped 35% year over year. Only one film grossed above $250 million, compared with four in the second quarter of 2023, Macquarie's report showed.

For the third quarter, the brokerage is projecting box office revenue to decline by 16% year over year to $2.2 billion.

Recent releases that have performed well, however, including Walt Disney's ( DIS ) "Inside Out 2" and Comcast ( CMCSA ) -owned Universal Pictures' "Despicable Me 4," offer promise for the future, according to the analysts.

"Inside Out 2" grossed $150 million domestically in its opening and has generated more than $500 million to date, "becoming Pixar's second-biggest opening for a sequel ever," they said.

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