JOHANNESBURG, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Mozambique's ruling

party candidate in this month's elections, who is almost certain

to win, is likely to continue relying on Rwanda's military and

European money to secure its huge gas fields in a region beset

by Islamist violence, analysts say.

Campaigning under the slogan "let's get to work",

ex-high school teacher Daniel Chapo, 47, is expected to oversee

the building of two liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects

currently on hold because of insecurity in northern Cabo Delgado

province.

To achieve this, he must lean heavily on Rwanda's military,

brought in by current President Felipe Nyusi in 2021 to bolster

struggling local troops.

"The Rwandans are undeniably competent," Tertius Jacobs,

lead analyst for Mozambique at risk consultancy Focus Group,

said. "Mozambique ... has little to no better alternative."

Rwandan units, including special forces, are tasked with

securing territory around the Afungi site where TotalEnergies

and ExxonMobil ( XOM ) plan LNG projects.

Nyusi's introducing Chapo to Rwandan president Paul Kagame

in June was a nod to continuity, Jacobs said, amid civil society

reports from Maputo that Rwandan security forces could build a

new camp in Quissanga district to buffer against insurgent

activity from the north, thereby enhancing security during

elections.

Rwandan forces are shouldering larger responsibilities after

regional southern African soldiers withdrew in July this year. A

spokesperson did not respond to an emailed request for comment.

Recent attacks by suspected Islamists include a February

ambush that killed more than 20 Mozambican soldiers, helping

displace tens of thousands of people in one of the worst

skirmishes since 2021, when TotalEnergies halted its $20 billion

project.

ExxonMobil's ( XOM ) neighbouring project is also on hold,

frustrating Mozambique's ambitions to become a major gas

exporter.

TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne has said work could

restart this year if security continues to improve, although

funding is another concern.

ExxonMobil ( XOM ) is expected to make a final investment decision

by end-2025.

"Rwanda will remain the key. They have thousands of troops

there to protect the LNG sites," Robert Besseling, CEO of

consultancy Pangea-Risk said.

Already a major funder, the EU is mulling further support to

Rwandan efforts to quell the insurgency, a spokesperson said.

"The fight against terrorism in Cabo Delgado is a common

fight," she said.