01:08 PM EST, 01/31/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Walmart Canada said Thursday that the company will invest $6.5 billion over the next five years to accelerate growth in Canada. The company Canada plans to open dozens of new stores, starting with supercentres in Ontario (two in 2025) and Alberta (three by 2027). This announcement follows its $3.5 billion investment from 2020 to 2024.

This announcement follows recent indications of accelerating square footage growth from the Canadian incumbents (Loblaw ( LBLCF ), Empire and Metro), notes National Bank.

Looking forward, in 2025, analyst Vishal Shreedhar estimates that industry square footage growth will accelerate to ~1% y/y while the population growth is expected to slow down to 0.3%. "This is an unhelpful development as it suggests increasing competition, albeit incremental."

All else equal, putting aside a macro backdrop which is punctuated with many uncertainties, National Bank does not expect an associated destabilization of industry economics related to escalating industry square footage growth.

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