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National Bank on Implications For Air Canada After Labour Disruption Ends
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National Bank on Implications For Air Canada After Labour Disruption Ends
Aug 20, 2025 3:52 AM

01:16 PM EDT, 08/19/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Air Canada ( ACDVF ) and its flight attendants union have reached a mediated settlement. Flights are set to resume Tuesday night, but it will take seven to 10 days to fully recover operations. Air Canada ( ACDVF ) on Monday formally suspended its third-quarter and full-year guidance to reflect the labour disruption. The company was previously guiding to 2025 EBITDA in a range of $3.2 to $3.6 billion.

Analyst Cameron Doerksen expects Air Canada ( ACDVF ) will be impacted by customer book-away in the lead up to and during the strike, but also potentially a short-term reputational hit that could impact bookings. The airline may launch more seat sales, which could hurt yields and revenue. Doerksen sees these impacts as short-lived for Air Canada ( ACDVF ), but they could temper financial results in the next quarter or two. Air Canada ( ACDVF ) has also been accruing an assumed compensation increase for flight attendants since the contract ended in Q1 with those assumptions embedded in 2025 guidance. If the final terms of the new contract are more generous than the accrual assumptions, there could be a one-time adjustment to costs as well as an adjustment to the cost guidance assumptions for the remainder of 2025.

The Federal government has said it would launch consultations on unpaid work in the airline sector. The current industry standard contract structure that sees flight attendant hourly pay start only once the aircraft doors are shut was a key sticking point with the Air Canada ( ACDVF ) union in negotiations, and it has reportedly been addressed under the new contract, Doerksen added.

Air Canada ( ACDVF ) is rated Outperform, with a $26 price target.

Price: 19.40, Change: +0.22, Percent Change: +1.15

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