01:15 PM EDT, 04/26/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Lifecos are underperforming the market by ~6% since the end of Q4/23 reporting season, reflecting a general pullback in markets, writes National Bank's Gabriel Dechaine.

National Bank is forecasting a fairly "quiet" quarter. Excluding a one-time charge to be recorded by Manulife (i.e., related to LTC portfolio disposition), Dechaine is forecasting a narrow spread (3%) between reported and core EPS, with all but GWO expected to deliver reported EPS ahead of core EPS.

Core EPS should also benefit from strong equity markets during the quarter, as 30%+ of average lifeco earnings are linked to Wealth businesses.

National Bank has also cut its IAG Q1/24 forecast by 5% to reflect: 1) a more conservative outlook for new business strain in the Group business; 2) impact from macro movements (rates); and 3) offset by higher wealth AUM due to stronger equity markets. We believe investors are particularly concerned about IAG's results, given the string of poor quarters over the past year. Consensus Q1/24 has been cut by 2% so far over the past month, which should limit downside risk heading into earnings, Dechaine said.

Lifecos will report Q1/24 earnings starting Wednesday, May 1.

Price: 40.43, Change: +0.24, Percent Change: +0.60