02:13 PM EDT, 04/30/2024 (MT Newswires) -- National Bank says Trisura Group ( TRRSF ) is "significantly de-risked" and setting up 2024 as solid recovery year.

"Trading at ~16x 2024 consensus EPS, we see TSU closing the valuation gap to specialty insurance peers that trade at an average ~21x," analyst Jaeme Gloyn. He moves TSU up to #2 , behind only Fairfax (FFH.TO) in his pecking order. Gloyn notes that AM Best revised Trisura's ( TRRSF ) "Outlook" to stable (from negative) and costs associated with the run-off program will move in the rearview mirror with Q1-24 results.

The focus will now be on operating performance with National Bank forecasting "high-teens operating EPS, adjusted ROE, and low-twenty's book value per share growth in 2024." The acquisition of First Founders, and their treasury listing is a good set-up for double-digit growth in Surety as TSU penetrates the U.S. market.

TSU is also expected to continue to capitalize on its unique positioning to generate sustained >20% growth in Canadian fronting. "While the 10% rise in share price since TSU reported Q4-23 results could limit upside in the quarter, valuation remains attractive in our view and we expect solid execution."

Trisura ( TRRSF ) is rated Outperform, with a $65 target.

Price: 42.49, Change: +0.04, Percent Change: +0.09