financetom
Business
financetom
/
Business
/
NDFI Credit Risk to Impact Bank Earnings in 2026, UBS Says
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
NDFI Credit Risk to Impact Bank Earnings in 2026, UBS Says
Oct 17, 2025 12:10 PM

02:41 PM EDT, 10/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Credit concerns around non-depository financial institutions, or NDFI, lending have increased following recent "high-profile" bankruptcies, UBS said Friday, adding that potential NDFI losses could affect earnings of major banks such as JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ) , Bank of America ( BAC ) , and Wells Fargo ( WFC ) by 12% to 15% in 2026.

The investment firm said in a note Friday that it conducted a stress test on major and regional lenders, modeling a "worst-case scenario" wherein NDFI losses mirror the peak losses seen in past corporate lending cycles, such as during the 2008-2009 global financial crisis and the early 2000s.

NDFI loans, which are loans made by banks to financial institutions that do not take deposits, have come under focus due to the emergence of fresh credit losses within this regulatory category. These loans make up about 14% of the total loan portfolios of banks covered by UBS and have grown around 60% since 2018, the note said.

According to the stress test, regional banks such as Huntington Bancshares ( HBAN ) and PNC (PNC) could see a dent to EPS by around 12%, compared with a 15% hit to larger banks in 2026. However, under an alternative scenario where only 50% of the NDFI book is stressed, EPS is seen to decline by 7% to 8%, UBS said.

UBS said that banks would still remain profitable, with a negligible impact on tangible book value.

"Whether credit issues are episodic or cyclical, we believe the best line of defense is strong PPNR (pre-provision net revenue) power," UBS said.

Price: 297.93, Change: -0.61, Percent Change: -0.20

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Market Chatter: Oil Falls After Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Even as Clashes Persist
Market Chatter: Oil Falls After Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Even as Clashes Persist
Jun 4, 2026
06:49 AM EDT, 06/04/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Oil fell as a conditional ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon offered to ease the way toward a US-Iran peace deal, even as the truce was marred by ongoing clashes, Bloomberg reported Thursday. Brent futures retreated 2.2% below US$96 a barrel in thin trading volumes, snapping three days of gains in London. Still, Iran...
Honeywell's Quantinuum heads for Nasdaq debut as quantum computing gains momentum
Honeywell's Quantinuum heads for Nasdaq debut as quantum computing gains momentum
Jun 4, 2026
June 4 (Reuters) - Honeywell's ( HON ) Quantinuum is set to make its U.S. market debut later on Thursday, after strong investor interest helped the quantum computing company raise $1.68 billion in an upsized initial public offering. Breakthroughs in the fast-growing technology have spurred bets that quantum machines could eventually outperform conventional computers on certain complex tasks. Sentiment was...
Honeywell's Quantinuum heads for Nasdaq debut as quantum computing gains momentum
Honeywell's Quantinuum heads for Nasdaq debut as quantum computing gains momentum
Jun 4, 2026
June 4 (Reuters) - Honeywell's ( HON ) Quantinuum is set to make its U.S. market debut later on Thursday, after strong investor interest helped the quantum computing company raise $1.68 billion in an upsized initial public offering. Breakthroughs in the fast-growing technology have spurred bets that quantum machines could eventually outperform conventional computers on certain complex tasks. Sentiment was...
IBM, Google Cloud Launch AI Consulting Practice for Enterprise Modernization
IBM, Google Cloud Launch AI Consulting Practice for Enterprise Modernization
Jun 4, 2026
06:49 AM EDT, 06/04/2026 (MT Newswires) -- IBM ( IBM ) and Google Cloud (GOOG, GOOGL) launched a new Google Cloud-focused consulting practice aimed at helping enterprises deploy artificial intelligence applications and modernize core systems, the companies said Thursday. The practice will be supported by thousands of Google Cloud-certified consultants and represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity for the two companies. IBM...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved