09:12 AM EDT, 04/10/2025 (MT Newswires) -- A month before Premier Andrew Furey steps down, and ahead of a provincial election due this year, the Newfoundland and Labrador government tables a "stay-the-course budget," with no new tax increases but also no significant new spending measures, noted Scotiabank.

The deficit is projected to rise this year before turning into surpluses going forward on the back of significant expenditure restraint and a significant pickup in economic activity in the outer years, said the bank.

However, for all intents and purposes, this is a placeholder fiscal framework that will be significantly impacted by the evolution of the trade war with the United States, the imminent provincial electoral cycle, and the final version of the agreement with Quebec on new hydroelectricity payments, stated Scotiabank.

The deficit is estimated at $252 million, or 0.6% of nominal gross domestic product, in FY25 and projected to expand to $372 million, or 0.9%, in FY26, before returning to surpluses that are expected to increase from $96 million, or 0.2%, in FY27 to $571 million, or 1.0%, by FY30.

Real GDP growth of 6.7% is predicted in 2024, expected to slow to 4.4% this year and 1.6% in 2026. Oil price of US$73/barrel in FY26.

The net debt is revised down to 44.4% of nominal GDP in FY25 versus 45.3% in the mid-year update, and marginally rising to 44.7% in FY26.

Borrowing requirements are seen increasing from $2.8 billion in FY25 to $4.1 billion in FY26.