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Nomura Sees Higher Likelihood of U.S. Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Despite 30-Day Pause
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Nomura Sees Higher Likelihood of U.S. Tariffs on Canada, Mexico Despite 30-Day Pause
Feb 4, 2025 6:34 AM

09:13 AM EST, 02/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- United States President Donald Trump over the weekend announced broad tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China effective Tuesday, but implementation on Canada and Mexico Monday was postponed by one month, noted Nomura.

The increase in China tariffs alone makes this the biggest single tariff increase Trump has enacted in either of his presidential terms, pointed out the bank.

If these tariffs fully take effect, all imports from Mexico and Canada will be subject to a 25% tariff rate, except for Canadian energy goods, which will be levied at 10%. Trump also plans to raise tariffs on China by 10%.

The size of these proposed tariffs dwarfs the tariffs Trump imposed in his first term. Higher tariffs are likely to push up core inflation "meaningfully," which reinforces Nomura's Federal Reserve call for no rate cuts this year.

Despite the delayed implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada, the bank revises up its base case for tariffs. Following the events of the past few days, Nomura believes the likelihood of tariffs on Mexico and Canada in 2025 has risen.

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