*
Company selling chips as fast as contractor TSMC can make
them
*
New Blackwell chip had initial design flaw that has been
fixed
-Nvidia ( NVDA ) CEO
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Production ramp-up expected to pressure gross margins in
short
term
By Stephen Nellis and Aditya Soni
SAN FRANCISCO/BENGALURU, Nov 21 (Reuters) - Nvidia's ( NVDA )
revenue forecast on Wednesday disappointed Wall Street,
raising questions over whether the artificial intelligence boom
is waning. But the answer, according to Nvidia ( NVDA ) executives,
analysts and investors, is a resounding no.
There is no shortage of companies eager to create new AI
systems using Nvidia's ( NVDA ) superior chips, and the world's largest
publicly listed company is selling them as fast as its
chipmaking contractor Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co ( TSM )
can make them.
Nvidia ( NVDA ) forecast its slowest revenue growth in seven quarters
on Wednesday, pushing its stock down 2.5% after hours, and said
supply chain constraints would lead to demand for its chips
exceeding supply for several quarters in fiscal 2026.
Making these chips is hard, and a flaw that was found in one
of its chips over the summer is not helping.
Nvidia's ( NVDA ) new flagship chip, named Blackwell, is actually
made up of multiple chips that have to be glued together in a
complex process the chip industry calls advanced packaging.
While TSMC is racing to expand capacity, packaging remains a
bottleneck for Nvidia ( NVDA ) and other chip companies.
"Blackwell adds more advanced packaging from TSMC than prior
chips, which adds a wrinkle," said Ben Bajarin, CEO and
principal analyst at research firm Creative Strategies. He
expects Nvidia ( NVDA ) will have more demand than it can supply for all
of 2025.
Missteps by Nvidia ( NVDA ) have exacerbated the issues.
The design flaw in Blackwell forced Nvidia ( NVDA ) to undertake what
it calls a "mask change." CEO Jensen Huang said the flaw, which
has since been fixed, lowered Blackwell chip yields, which are
the proportion of chips that come off the manufacturing line
fully functional.
While Nvidia ( NVDA ) never elaborated on the flaw, complex chips
like Blackwell can take months to produce because they require
hundreds of manufacturing steps. Many of these steps involve
shining ultraviolet light through a series of complex masks to
project the image of a chip's circuits on a disc of silicon - a
process akin to printing the chip.
The mask change appears to have set back Nvidia's ( NVDA ) production
timelines and cost it money, analysts said.
"There's the risk that the bottlenecks worsen rather than
improve, and that could damage revenue projections," said
Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point
Capital.
During a conference call with investors, Nvidia ( NVDA ) executives
said the company has shipped about 13,000 samples of its new
chip and expects to beat its initial estimates that it would
sell several billion dollars' worth this quarter.
"We're at the beginning of our production ramp, which always
comes with opportunities for yield improvement," Huang told
Reuters on Wednesday. "We are ramping Blackwell from zero to
something extremely large. By definition, the laws of physics
would say that there's a limit to how fast you can ramp."
In the short term, the production ramp-up is expected to
pressure gross margins.
Nvidia ( NVDA ) executives warned investors the company's margins
would sink several percentage points to the low-70% range until
production kinks are ironed out.
Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager at Gabelli Funds, which
holds Nvidia ( NVDA ) shares, said there was no doubt that demand for the
company's chips remained "absolutely and exceptionally strong"
for the foreseeable future.
"The key focus is supply - how much supply Nvidia ( NVDA ) can
produce," he said.