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Oil Continues to Push Higher as Some Tariff Battles Ease, but Supply Concerns Remain
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Oil Continues to Push Higher as Some Tariff Battles Ease, but Supply Concerns Remain
May 26, 2025 6:43 AM

08:48 AM EDT, 05/13/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil traded higher for a fourth session early on Tuesday after China and the United States over the weekend agreed to a 90-day pause in their tariff battle and even as inventories rise on higher supply.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for June delivery was last seen up US$0.76 to US$62.71 per barrel, while July Brent crude was up US$0.69 to US$65.65. WTI oil is up 8.5% over the past week, spurred on by last week's U.S. trade deal with the United Kingdom and a weekend agreement that sees China and the United States lower punishing tariffs on each other's products for 90 days as they seek a broad trade agreement.

"A long-term trade deal...between the US and China would be a huge relief for the broader market and could derisk demand growth expectations," wrote Matt Portillo, an analyst with Tudor, Pickering, Holt.

Expectations for higher demand with the start of the U.S. driving season on the coming Memorial Day holiday is also offering some support to the commodity. However rising supply is offering a check to prices. OPEC+ plans to add a second 411,000 barrels per day per tranche of new supply to market in June, as it speeds the return of 2.2-million bpd of voluntary production cuts while production is on the rise outside of the cartel.

The Energy Information Agency last week said it believes global inventories are already on the rise and are likely to continue to swell over the year.

"Every quarter of this year, including the incumbent one, is forecast to see considerable swelling of global oil inventories, the EIA predicts: 2Q 480,000 bpd, 3Q 420,000 bpd and 4Q 750,000 bpd. Confirmation should come from the IEA, which will publish its updated projection on Thursday, following the comparatively upbeat OPEC monthly report a day earlier," PVM Oil Associates noted.

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