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Oil Edges Down Despite Further Stimulus Measures From China and Heightened Geopolitical Risk
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Oil Edges Down Despite Further Stimulus Measures From China and Heightened Geopolitical Risk
Dec 10, 2024 6:48 AM

09:19 AM EST, 12/10/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices eased early on Tuesday, remaining firmly rangebound despite new stimulus measures from China and turmoil in Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for January delivery was last seen down US$0.20 to US$68.17 per barrel, while February Brent crude was down US$0.24 to US$71.90.

The drop comes a day after China, the No.1 importer, said it will loosen its monetary policy stance for the first time since 2010 as it looks to support a flagging economy burdened by a debt crisis in its real-estate sector, weak consumer spending and disinflation, cutting into oil demand growth from the country.

"Tentative bulls were ... emboldened by the remarks from the Chinese Politburo that the country will adopt an 'appropriately loose' monetary policy coupled with proactive fiscal policy next year. Of course, the devil is in the details and these details are sketchy, so far. The economy will only be stimulated by improving consumer sentiment and spending, by a rise in domestic aggregate demand echoed in a healthy increase in consumer inflation," PVM Oil Associates noted.

Oil has traded in a narrow range since late summer as demand growth falters amid China's economic woes, while rising supply from the United States, Canada and South America is expected to be sufficient to more than meet demand growth in 2025, even as OPEC+ looks to begin returning some supply cuts to market beginning in April.

Geopolitical risk rose following the weekend collapse of Syria's long-ruling Assad regime, as rebels swiftly captured Damascus, the country's capital, and forced President Bashar al-Assad to seek asylum in Russia.

The defeat of the country's government and the victory of rebel groups led by the Hay'at Tahrir al -Sham (HTS)

militia introduces fresh uncertainty in a Middle East already in turmoil as Israel warred with Iran-backed forces in Gaza and Lebanon. Assad had been backed by Iran and Russia, but both countries were unable to offer support as Russia is bogged down in its war on Ukraine and Iran's network of proxy militias has been decimated by Israel.

"The inability of Russia and Iran to come to the aid of Assad, especially with airpower, clearly changed the conflict's balance of power dynamics. From our vantage point, we will be closely watching the impact of Assad's fall on the leaderships in Tehran and Moscow. For Iran, the loss of Assad is one more catastrophic blow to its Axis of Resistance armed proxy network," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, noted.

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