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Oil Falls as OPEC+ Plans Another November Output Hike, Raising Oversupply Fears
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Oil Falls as OPEC+ Plans Another November Output Hike, Raising Oversupply Fears
Sep 29, 2025 6:11 AM

08:44 AM EDT, 09/29/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil traded sharply lower early Monday on reports OPEC+ plans to increase production again in November, adding to concerns the market is becoming oversupplied as the cartel continues to look to boost its market share and price competitors out of the market.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for November delivery was last seen down US$1.42 to $64.30 per barrel, while November Brent oil was down $1.34 to $68.79.

Reuters Sunday reported OPEC+ intends to again raise output in November by 137,000 barrels per day as it continues to return shut-in supplies, adding to a same-sized increase coming on Oct. 1 and following on the return of 2.2-million bpd of production cuts it completed on Sept.1.

The cartel's production cuts comes as Saudi Arabia, which leads the cartel, looks to recapture market share lost to U.S. shale-oil producers and other western hemisphere countries like Canada with high production costs. However much of the OPEC+ supply increases are smaller than advertised, as some members compensate for previous over production and others have no ability to boost output.

"With OPEC's voluntary producers set to meet on October 5 to discuss the continued unwind of the 1.66 mb/d cut, we view a repeat of the incremental 137 kb/d addition for November as the most likely outcome. Given that many producers, excluding Saudi Arabia, have essentially hit their production ceilings, future OPEC+ supply increases will be materially lower than the announced headline numbers," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research at RBC Capital Markets, noted.

To be sure, prices have remained mostly rangebound over the past two months as oversupply worries are matched by security concerns as Ukraine continues to attack Russia's oil infrastructure to reduce its invader's export earnings and cut fuel supply to its military.

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