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Oil Rises Off Four-Year Low Even as OPEC+ Supply Hikes Unbalance Market
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Oil Rises Off Four-Year Low Even as OPEC+ Supply Hikes Unbalance Market
May 26, 2025 1:58 AM

09:03 AM EDT, 05/06/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices rose off a four-year low early on Tuesday as traders buy the dip even as OPEC+'s weekend decision to add another outsized tranche of supply to the market in June threatens to push the market into surplus.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for June delivery was last seen up US$1.45 to US$58.58 per barrel, rising off the lowest since February, 2021, while July Brent crude was up US$1.42 to US$61.65.

The price of the commodity has dropped 20% since the start of the year on expectations for slower global growth as U.S. President Donald Trump threatened, and then launched, trade wars with nearly all of the country's trading partners.

Rising supply is also weighing on prices, after OPEC+ on the weekend said it will continue to speed the return of 2.2-million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts to market, with a second-straight monthly supply increase of 411,000 barrels per day of supply in June.

The OPEC+ decision comes as the eight members of the cartel who, led by Saudi Arabia, made the voluntary cuts in 2023, look to bring other members who have consistently over produced their quotas back into compliance. Saudi Arabia has signaled it is willing to weather a period of low prices to enforce solidarity among cartel members and recover market share lost to U.S. shale producers and rising output from other non-OPEC countries.

"The initial impact is bountiful oil supply and possibly depressed prices followed by slowing output growth in non-OPEC+ countries, particularly in the US shale sector, increased chances of maximum pressure on Iran and finally oil demand support, especially if US trade policies will not precipitate further economic damage and credibility and trust in the US Administration, which are currently suffering from a severe deficit, are gradually re-gained. Because of the huge amount of uncertainty surrounding the macroeconomy, it is challenging to predict the extent of any oil price fall," PVM Oil Associates noted.

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