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Oil Rises on Strong Summer Demand as IEA Warns of Ballooning Supply
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Oil Rises on Strong Summer Demand as IEA Warns of Ballooning Supply
Jul 11, 2025 6:15 AM

08:59 AM EDT, 07/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices rose early on Friday as traders look to strong summer demand, even as the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned supply is outstripping demand.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery was last seen up $0.84 to US$67.41 per barrel, while September Brent crude was up US$0.77 to US$69.41.

The rise comes amid solid summer demand, with refiners boosting gasoline production amid the driving season in the northern hemisphere. However the call on gasoline stocks comes as supply is on the rise as OPEC+ speeds the return of 2.2-million barrels per day (bpd), adding a third monthly tranche of 411,000 bpd in July and planning to boost that to 548,000 bpd in August.

In its July Oil Market Report the International Energy Agency noted the rise in summer demand even as it cut its 2025 demand outlook and raised its supply forecast. The agency said it expects demand to rise by just 0.7-million bpd this year to 104.4-million bpd, the lowest annual growth since 2009, while noting supply rose by 0.95-million bpd in June alone and expects 2025 supply to rise by 2.1-million bpd to 105.1 bpd.

"Large supply increases compare with modest expected growth in global oil demand ... Yet the seasonality in crude runs to meet Northern Hemisphere summer travel demand is boosting refinery throughputs by 3.7 mb/d from May to August. The typical doubling in crude burning for power generation over the same period, to around 900 kb/d, further tightens the market," the IEA said in its report.

RBC Capital Markets on Friday also issued its own warning over rising supply, expecting high production to become more of an issue for the market when the summer ends.

"As of now, nearly all of the surplus we've seen for the first half of the year has ended up on water or in APAC (the Asia-Pacific region). While there are portions of the market showing tightness, particularly heavy sour grades, the aggregate oversupply becomes harder to manage as we begin to exit summer demand season," global oil strategist Brian Leisen wrote.

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