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Oil Rises to a Five-Month High as Fresh U.S. Sanctions on Russia's Exports Squeeze Supply
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Oil Rises to a Five-Month High as Fresh U.S. Sanctions on Russia's Exports Squeeze Supply
Jan 13, 2025 6:09 AM

08:59 AM EST, 01/13/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices rose to a five-month high early on Friday as traders assess the risk to supply following tightened U.S. sanctions on Russia's oil exports.

West Texas Intermediate crude for February delivery was last seen up US$1.40 to US$77.97 per barrel, the highest since Aug.15, while March Brent crude was up US$1.17 to US$80.93.

The rise comes after the outgoing Biden Administration on Friday added new sanctions on Russian oil producers Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, as well as their subsidiaries. It also sanctioned more than 180 vessels, and dozens of oil traders, oilfield service providers, insurance companies and energy officials.

RBC Capital Markets said in a weekend note it tracked shipments for 75% of the sanctioned Russian vessels, part of the country's 'shadow fleet" of tankers. Its data shows the vessels carried 1.5-million barrels per day of exports. The total includes 750,000 bpd of exports to China and 350,000 bpd to India. The two country's refiners will likely need to turn to the Middle East to replace the barrels.

"Of the vessels we identified, we were able to track 1.4 mb/d of cargoes discharged outside of Russia. However, given the nature of the shadow/gray fleet, coupled with the sanctioning of Gazpromneft (400 kb/d of exports in 2024) and Surgutneftegas (500 kb/d of exports in 2024) which make up ~20% of Russian production, the number of barrels potentially affected could be much higher," Brian Leisen, RBC's global oil strategist, noted.

The new sanctions come as the incoming Trump Administration is expected to put fresh restrictions of its own on Iran's oil exports, which have been on the rise, further cutting into supply

"The incoming Trump government is expected to tighten sanctions on Iran, potentially forcing a reduction in the nation's output, which over the past four years has increased by around 1.3 million barrels per day to a six-year high," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted.

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