09:02 AM EDT, 06/03/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Oil was mostly steady early on Monday after OPEC+ over the weekend rolled 2.2-million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts into the third quarter, while planning to roll back the cuts beginning in October and extending other cuts slated to expire at year end through 2025.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$0.11 to US$76.98 per barrel, while August Brent crude, the global benchmark, was down US$0.10 to US$81.01.
OPEC staged a ministerial meeting on Sunday to decide on the future of 2.2-million barrels per day of voluntary cuts slated to end on June 30, leaving them in place through the high-demand third quarter while planning to roll them back beginning in the fourth quarter depending on market conditions.
The cartel left another 3.6-million bpd of group and voluntary quota cuts in place and extended them through 2025, though the United Arab Emirates will be allowed to raise its output by 0.3-million bpd next year.
"OPEC+ once again delivered a plot twist, pairing a group cut extension until December 2025 with a 300 kb/d increase for the UAE next year, alongside a schedule for gradually unwinding the 2.2 mb/d voluntary cuts starting in October of 2024. While any signal to add back barrels will be seized on by market bears, we think it is important that the taper timeline execution will be data dependent and subject to review at summer's end," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note.
The cuts leave the group officially producing six-million bpd under its capacity, about 6% of global demand, though several members, including Russia and Iraq, have been producing over their quota.
"While much is still in flux, we would expect these cuts to amplify a potentially very tight summer crude balance, but absent improved compliance, we would not anticipate a total petroleum balance in a large deficit over this period. Under full conformity,
the voluntary cuts would place production from OPEC participants Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Iraq, and Algeria at ~19.2 MBD through Q3 '24," Macquarie energy strategist Walt Chancellor, wrote.