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Oil Steady as OPEC+ Confirms December Output Hike, Plans Q1 Pause
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Oil Steady as OPEC+ Confirms December Output Hike, Plans Q1 Pause
Nov 3, 2025 6:32 AM

09:01 AM EST, 11/03/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices were steady early on Monday as OPEC+ on the weekend said it will again boost monthly production by 137,000 barrels per day on Dec. 1, while announcing it will pause further production increases in the first quarter of next year.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for December delivery was last seen up US$0.01 to $60.99 per barrel, while January Brent oil was down $0.03 to $64.80.

In a brief monthly ministerial meeting, OPEC+ said it will make a third 137,000-bpd monthly production hike next month and then leave quotas unchanged in the first quarter of 2026. The hikes following on 2.2-million barrels per day of output increases from the group that ended in September, leaving the much of the group unable to further raise output.

"In a meeting that took less than 15 minutes, the OPEC+ voluntary producers made the widely anticipated decision to increase production by a modest 137 kb/d for December, but with the added plot twist to pause output increases for Q1 2026. Once again, the additional barrels that will actually be added in December will be significantly smaller than the headline number because all of the producers - barring Saudi Arabia - are essentially maxed out," Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and MENA research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.

Still, the hikes have pushed more oil into an already oversupplied market, with producers in North and South America having boosted output above demand growth this year, raising global inventories and pressuring prices. While U.S. commercial oil stocks were last seen 6% under the five-year average, Bloomberg reported that more than one-billion barrels of crude are currently held in oil tankers.

Concerns over supply from Russia continue to offer support as Ukraine struck at a Russian refinery and oil port on the weekend, while the United States last month imposed fresh sanctions on Russian producers to discourage India and China from buying their oil, though their effectiveness remains in doubt.

"The initial market reaction was a rally, as fears of genuine disruption to Russian crude and product exports grew. The practical consequences of the move, however, were re-evaluated in the following days, and for good reason. Chinese refiner Yulong, based in Shandong, is reportedly planning to import 15 shipments of Russian crude in November," PVM Oil Associates noted.

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