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Oil Trades Higher as OPEC+ Seen Delaying Return of Production Cuts to Market
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Oil Trades Higher as OPEC+ Seen Delaying Return of Production Cuts to Market
Dec 3, 2024 6:46 AM

09:16 AM EST, 12/03/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices rose early on Tuesday on expectations OPEC+ will delay its plan to return its voluntary production cuts to market until April, easing concerns the market could become over supplied.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for January delivery was last seen up US$1.19 to US$69.29 per barrel, while February Brent oil was up US$1.17 to US$73.00.

OPEC+ will stage a virtual ministerial meeting on Thursday to decide if it will go ahead with a plan to return 2.2-million barrels per day of production cuts to the market, adding 180,000 barrels per day of additional supply monthly beginning in January. However Reuters, citing OPEC+ sources, reported the group is likely to postpone the plan until the end of the first quarter, easing over-supply worries as prices remain rangebound amid weak demand from China.

"Should OPEC forge ahead with prior plans to increase supply, we believe the scales would tilt heavily towards pronounced oversupply in oil. Yet, at this point, after deferring increases originally planned for Oct. and then Dec., we would be surprised to see OPEC announce the return of supply for Jan. '25," Macquarie Group energy analyst Walt Chancellor said in a note.

However even if the cartel delays its plan, the additional barrels are likely to meet a market more than well supplied, with the Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency both saying 2025 demand growth will be more than met with rising supply from the United States, Canada and South America, boosting global inventories.

Positive economic data for China's manufacturing sector released Monday is offering support to oil, while a geopolitical risk premium remains in place, supported by violence in the Middle East and Russia's war in Ukraine. As well, South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday declared martial law in the country as he accused his opposition, which controls the country's Parliament, of anti-state activities, adding to the international turmoil.

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