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Oil Trades Lower as OPEC+ Mulls Another Outsized Supply Hike in July
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Oil Trades Lower as OPEC+ Mulls Another Outsized Supply Hike in July
May 26, 2025 12:29 PM

09:05 AM EDT, 05/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices fell early on Thursday following a report that OPEC+ plans to again boost supply in July as it speeds the return of 2.2-million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts to market.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$1.05 to US$60.52 per barrel, while July Brent crude was down US$1.14 to US$63.77.

Bloomberg reported OPEC+ is ready to add a third monthly tranche of 411,000 barrels per day of supply to the market in July as the group led by Saudi Arabia turns from its prior focus on keeping prices high and moves to raise its share of the market and cut into price-sensitive U.S. shale-oil production. The group will meet next week to decide on July production rates.

"Though we must always offer the caveat that Saudi energy minister HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has an affinity for surprise endings, we think the most likely outcome is another headline increase of 411 kb/d from July, which will be primarily Saudi barrels. A key question will be whether the voluntary cut will be fully drawn down before the leaves turn brown in many parts of the world," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, noted.

Following three years of high demand and falling global inventories amid tight supply, OPEC+'s decision to boost output as the world's economy slows is raising supply over demand and checking prices.

"In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency warned of a potential oil glut both this year and next. This forecast is driven by strong supply growth, including already-announced output increases from eight OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia, and weaker-than-expected demand growth," Ole Hansen. head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank wrote.

The Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reported a surprise rise in U.S. oil inventories last week, as stocks rose by 1.3-million barrels while the consensus estimate expected a drop of 0.9-million barrels.

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