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Oil Trading Lower as OPEC+ Likely to Agree on Another Big Production Increase for August
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Oil Trading Lower as OPEC+ Likely to Agree on Another Big Production Increase for August
Jul 4, 2025 5:59 AM

08:41 AM EDT, 07/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Oil prices weakened in light holiday trade early on Friday, falling for a second day on increasing supply.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery was last seen down US$0.51 to US$66.49 per barrel, while September Brent crude was down US$0.53 to US$68.27.

The drop comes as OPEC+ readies to meet on Sunday, with the group widely expected to approve a fourth-monthly tranche of 411,000 barrels per day of supply increases in August. The group is returning 2.2-million barrels per day of production cuts to market even as supply from outside the cartel is also on the rise.

"OPEC8+ continues to ramp up production in an effort to punish overproducing quota cheaters, and to reclaim market share from higher-cost producers which may eventually have to dial down production amid lower price expectations," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.

Major forecasting agencies agree global inventories are rising on increased supply. The Energy Information Administration this week reported an unexpected rise in commercial oil inventories of 3.8-million barrels, while most analysts expected another drop in stocks with the United States in the midst of its high-demand summer driving season.

The rise in supply comes as the global economy slows as U.S. President Trump readies to impose widespread tariffs on its trading partners. After failing to reach trade deals with most of the country's partners, Reuters reported Trump plans to send letters to 10 countries at a time beginning next week, imposing tariffs of between 20% and 30%.

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