02:46 PM EDT, 09/16/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Darden Restaurants ( DRI ) may miss Wall Street's estimates for the fiscal first quarter when it reports results on Thursday but may reiterate its full-year outlook against easing comparisons, Oppenheimer said Monday.

The brokerage expects same-store sales to slip 0.2% in the quarter, compared with the consensus that comparable sales will be flat year to year. Its $1.78 EPS target, which Oppenheimer lowered from a previous estimate of $1.85, is below the Street's $1.83 view.

Same-store sales likely declined 1.5% at Olive Garden ( DRI ), compared with the market's expectation for the metric to drop 1.3%. Oppenheimer analysts Brian Bittner and Michael Tamas are modeling for a 1.5% fall in fine dining, worse than the consensus' 1.1% decline.

Bittner and Tamas reiterated an outperform rating and a $182 price target on the stock. The quarterly results are "unlikely to be a near-term catalyst," they wrote.

The restaurant operator may reiterate its full-year guidance amid improving same-store sales trends later in the fiscal year and easing comparisons, according to the research report.

Darden's fiscal 2025 same-store sales guidance of 1% to 2% growth assumes an acceleration following the first quarter. Oppenheimer lowered its fiscal 2025 EPS target to $9.48 from $9.50, moving in line with the average analyst estimate on Capital IQ. Darden's guidance is for EPS in the $9.40 to $9.60 range, excluding the proposed acquisition of Chuy's (CHUY).

The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 year to date but has outperformed peers since late August. However, the stock remains at "an interesting discount" compared with its historical performance, while the relative premium to Chili's Grill & Bar ( EAT ) parent Brinker International ( EAT ) has narrowed by roughly 30%, skewing Darden's "relative risk/reward more attractively," the analysts said.

"We believe management has levers to improve investor sentiment if it utilizes more impactful promotions and/or smartly deploys (third-party delivery) to gain share," Bittner and Tamas said.

Price: 160.67, Change: +0.42, Percent Change: +0.26