LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - OPEC+ is working on a complex
deal to be agreed at its meeting on Sunday that will allow the
group to extend some of its deep oil production cuts into 2025,
three sources familiar with OPEC+ discussions said on Thursday.
OPEC+ has made a series of cuts since late 2022 amid
rising output from the United States and other non-members, and
worries over demand as major economies grapple with high
interest rates.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries led by
Saudi Arabia and allies led by Russia, known as OPEC+, is
currently cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per
day, equal to about 5.7% of global demand.
The cuts include 3.66 million bpd by OPEC+ members valid
through to the end of 2024, and 2.2 million bpd of voluntary
cuts by some members which expire at the end of June.
OPEC+ will begin a series of online meetings at 1100 GMT on
Sunday.
The deal on Sunday could include extending some or all of
the cuts of 3.66 million bpd into 2025 and some or all of the
voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd into the third or fourth
quarter of 2024, three sources familiar with the discussions
said on Thursday.
The extension of some cuts into 2025 will likely be made
conditional on OPEC+ agreeing new individual member output
capacity figures later in 2024, two of the sources said.
OPEC+ is trying to agree new oil production capacity for its
member countries by the end of 2024, an issue that has created
tensions in the past because each nation's output target is
calculated from its notional capacity.
"We expect OPEC+ could announce on Sunday a framework for
2025 and how to phase back some of the cuts," said Amrita Sen,
co-founder of Energy Aspects think-tank.
The countries which have made voluntary cuts that are
deeper than those agreed with the wider group are Algeria, Iraq,
Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United
Arab Emirates.
"We would not entirely rule out a plot twist - in the form
of a deeper cut - given (Saudi energy minister) Prince
Abdulaziz's (bin Salman) penchants for Hollywood twist endings,"
said Helima Croft from RBC Capital Markets.
Prince Abdulaziz has repeatedly said he likes keeping the
oil market on its toes and promised to punish speculators.
The OPEC+ meeting may coincide with a secondary share
offering in oil giant Aramco on Riyadh's Saudi
Exchange - the culmination of a years-long effort to sell
another chunk in one of the world's most valuable companies
after its record-setting IPO in 2019 raised $29.4 billion.