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Country's emissions and some power bills are down

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Electric utilities struggle with weak demand, high debt

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Climate ministry says Lahore could see negative power

demand

By Sudarshan Varadhan

BELEM, Brazil, Nov 22 (Reuters) - Pakistan's rooftop

solar generation will for the first time exceed power demand on

the country's electrical grid during daytime hours in some major

industrial regions next year, a senior government official told

Reuters.

The outlook reflects a record boom in the country's solar

panel installations in recent years that has delivered lower

emissions and reduced power bills for some, but also disrupted

the finances of debt-laden utilities due to a protracted decline

in demand for grid-based electricity.

"Pakistan will experience negative grid-linked demand during

certain daytime hours because behind-the-meter solar is

offsetting grid consumption completely," Aisha Moriani,

secretary of Pakistan's climate change ministry told Reuters on

the sidelines of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil.

While regions in Europe and Australia sometimes experience

negative electricity prices due to solar oversupply and low

demand, Pakistan would be among the first major emerging markets

where rooftop generation could exceed grid-linked demand in

major areas entirely for lengthy periods.

"Negative demand" is likely in the northwestern city of

Lahore, which has some of the country's highest solar

penetration, followed by Faisalabad and Sialkot, where

industrial areas are driving solar adoption, she said.

Power cuts and tariff hikes have pushed Pakistan's 250

million people to accelerate solar adoption and made it the

world's third-largest panel importer, with solar's share in

generation exceeding its neighbour China.

The south Asian nation will see more

frequent negative-demand events, especially during bright summer

afternoons, industrial holidays and moderate temperature days

with high solar output, said Moriani, Pakistan's lead negotiator

at COP30.

"Pakistan's challenge is not whether renewable energy will

grow, it is how fast the grid, regulation, and market design can

evolve to keep pace," she said.

The south Asian nation is planning to introduce new tariffs

for large solar users, as well as changes to fee structures to

ensure businesses with panels share equally in the costs of grid

upkeep, she said.

Pakistan's grid-linked power demand is expected to grow 3-4%

this year, slower than historical averages. Next year,

consumption is expected to rise more steeply but could be

impacted more by higher solar use, Moriani said.

The surge in solar use has also pushed Pakistan to

renegotiate its LNG contracts with top supplier Qatar and cancel

cargoes supplied by Italy's Eni, Moriani said.

Pakistan is looking for lower prices, flexible delivery

schedules and potentially fewer cargoes, she said.

While there were no formal negotiations with Qatar at COP30,

the event provided "diplomatic space for engagement with energy

ministers and commercial representatives," she said.

"The key aim is to align Pakistan's gas import strategy with

fiscal space, demand outlook, and seasonal patterns. Pakistan

seeks stability and affordability, not expansion of LNG

dependency."